Bill Pulte’s tweet cost FICO shareholders $4 billion

Bill Pulte, Donald Trump’s appointed Federal Housing Finance Agency director who oversees US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has shaved off $4 billion in market cap from credit giant FICO with a single post to X.

The government-backed mortgage giants will now price mortgages using VantageScore 4.0 on the same grid as FICO’s Classic score.

The move, favoring FICO’s competitor, ends the arrangement that forced millions of conventional US mortgage applications through FICO’s tollbooth.

On Monday, Pulte posted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be “simplifying mortgage pricing” by ending FICO’s customary and arguably monopolistic role in mortgage applications.

Although introducing one competitor into a monopoly simply creates a duopoly, Pulte exclaimed to the horror of executives at Fair Isaac Corporation, the maker of FICO credit scores, “Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid.”

In pre-market trading today, NYSE-traded FICO stock had dropped by over 20%, losing over $3 billion. By 11am, the drop was closer to 30% with a market cap loss exceeding $4 billion.

Rocket Mortgage, a large home lender with close ties to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and veterans’ loans, quickly announced that it will prefer FICO’s rival.

Starting in the fourth quarter, Rocket will default to VantageScore 4.0 instead of FICO score on eligible direct-to-consumer loans. 

Rocket Mortgage went further, twisting the knife by claiming average savings of $1,600 at closing for applicants thanks to VantageScore 4.0. 

Mortgage pricing grid change costs FICO billions

Pulte praised Rocket Mortgage’s pivot away from FICO, claiming President Trump was ultimately to thank for the supposed savings.

Prior to yesterday’s news from Pulte, Fannie and Freddie priced risk into every conforming mortgage through loan-level price adjustments, fees set by credit score, and the amount of down payment.

Classic FICO was the only score those interest rate pricing grids recognized, so every conforming mortgage required buying a score on each applicant from FICO.

VantageScore 4.0, FICO’s main competitor built by Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion, gained full GSE access on September 9. However, Fannie and Freddie still priced it on separate grids and treated it as 20 points lower. 

Moreover, third-party analyses found VantageScore-priced loans cost more than FICO-priced loans, in many cases.

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Pulte ends FICO ‘monopoly’

Monday’s change deletes the second grid, forcing FICO and VantageScore to compete directly. With the same fee tier, a lender may now bypass FICO entirely and generate a Fannie-/Freddie-conforming mortgage application.

In Pulte’s personal opinion, “FICO has enjoyed a monopoly.” The housing director also claimed the company has increased its prices “1,800%” since 2020.

FICO stock hit an all-time high of $2,402 in November 2024. It now trades 75% lower, below $610. 

Over the past month, the company has halved in value, losing over $12 billion of market cap as regulatory changes have undermined its pricing power.

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