Crypto vs Stocks: What the 200-Day Moving Average Shows Now

The S&P 500 is hovering near record highs, but a majority of its constituents are trading below their 200-day moving averages, according to data shared by analyst Scott Melker on X.

On the other hand, 88 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are above their MAs, highlighting the contrast in market breadth, with Melker arguing that crypto’s technical position looks healthier even though many major tokens are still well below their all-time highs.

Most of the S&P 500 Sits Below Its 200-Day Line

In his post, the trader reported that 257 S&P 500 stocks were below their 200-day averages as of Wednesday, leaving roughly 49% of the index above that widely watched trend measure. He described the market’s internal condition as bearish despite the index’s proximity to record levels.

Crypto presented a different picture. Bitcoin and Ethereum were among the 88 top-100 tokens above their 200-day simple moving averages, and most of those assets were also holding above their 50-day and 100-day averages.

Melker called the combination a “clean, bullish configuration across the board.” He also pointed to the distance between current crypto prices and previous highs, contrasting them with equities that, in his view, have already priced in substantial good news.

“Weak breadth in stocks near highs has historically been a yellow flag,” stated the market watcher. “Strong breadth in crypto while prices remain far from peaks is the opposite setup.”

Remember, the figures measure how many assets are trading above a long-term average, rather than how far prices have risen or whether gains are sustainable, so they only offer a snapshot of market participation, not a guarantee that either market will continue in its current direction.

Top Cryptocurrencies See Red

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior can add context to the comparison, having rebounded from around $75,000 after setbacks including the failed CLARITY Act vote and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time since July 2023, to briefly move above $87,000 before facing renewed selling.

At the time of writing, CoinGecko data put BTC around $84,000, down nearly 3% over 24 hours, but up by about 10% in the last seven days. Ethereum was trading near $2,700, also down close to 3% in one day while having gained 10% in a week.

XRP’s 6.5% drop in 24 hours was only beaten by Dogecoin’s nearly 7% plunge in the same period and was nearly matched by Zcash, which also shaved more than 6% from its price. The dips pushed the broader crypto market capitalization to around $2.96 trillion, nearly 3% lower than where it was yesterday, with Bitcoin dominance at just over 57%.

Meanwhile, Santiment data shows Bitcoin’s correlations with stocks, gold, and the dollar have weakened, and that shift complicates any assumption that crypto will simply follow equities.