Goldman Sachs Analyzes Impact of Potential US Diesel Export Ban

Goldman Sachs analysts have projected that a potential ban on diesel exports from the United States could lead to a decrease in domestic diesel prices by approximately 25 cents per gallon each week, equating to around 4% from the current price of about $6.50. Conversely, European wholesale diesel prices could rise by about $3 per barrel, or roughly 2%. These estimates were detailed in a report published on September 26, 2026, amid ongoing considerations by the US government to impose export curbs due to reduced Middle Eastern supply resulting from the war with Iran.

The analysts noted that while the ban is considered a plausible scenario, it is not their base case. They highlighted that the interconnected nature of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel production means that a prolonged export ban could lead to higher gasoline prices in the US, potentially increasing by about 30 cents per gallon once diesel storage reaches capacity. This situation could pressure refining margins, prompting refiners to cut back on crude processing.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the release of strategic diesel reserves in Europe could mitigate some of the anticipated price increases on the continent. They recommend buying European gasoline, citing a tightening market and the fact that Europe's gasoline reserves are significantly smaller than its diesel reserves, which could lead to supply constraints if a US export ban is enacted. Overall, the analysts suggest that global refined product prices may remain elevated even if the ban is lifted, as US diesel prices would likely realign with international levels.

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Source: KLEA News