Nike (NKE) Stock Could Double: Jefferies Maintains Bullish Stance Before Thursday’s Earnings

Key Takeaways

• Randal Konik from Jefferies maintains his Buy rating on Nike with a $75 price target, suggesting shares could more than double from current trading levels.
• Shares have plummeted 44% in 2026 as the athletic apparel giant battles weakening demand in China and intensifying competition from brands like On Holding.
• The company releases fiscal Q1 2027 results Thursday, with Konik projecting 48 cents in EPS and $11.5 billion in revenue, topping consensus forecasts.
• The analyst views the November 16-17 investor day as a more significant potential catalyst, particularly with incoming CFO David Denton expected to provide updated long-term guidance.
• Following its removal from the S&P 100 index on September 21, Wall Street remains divided on the stock, with BofA downgrading to Underperform while BTIG increased its target.

Shares of Nike ended Friday’s session at $35.75, hovering dangerously close to the 52-week low of $35.22. Following a devastating 44% decline in 2026, at least one Wall Street analyst believes the selling pressure may have run its course.

NIKE, Inc., NKE

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik reaffirmed his Buy recommendation and $75 price objective earlier this week. If realized, that valuation would represent more than a 100% gain from current prices.

Konik’s bullish stance hinges largely on Thursday’s fiscal first-quarter results. He anticipates the report will demonstrate “continued progress” for the beleaguered athletic wear company.

His financial projections support that view. Konik forecasts 48 cents in earnings per share alongside $11.5 billion in sales, modestly exceeding the Street’s consensus of 44 cents and $11.3 billion, respectively.

Sources of Potential Stabilization

According to Jefferies, North American operations and wholesale distribution channels should show signs of stabilization during the quarter. Enhanced inventory management is anticipated to create a healthier retail environment and support gross margin recovery.

Cost discipline should provide additional tailwinds. Jefferies projects SG&A expenses declining to 34.5% of sales from 35.3%, which would lift EBIT margin to 7.6% from the prior 7.1%.

Nike had already accelerated some gross margin gains into this reporting period. The fourth quarter saw only a 10 basis point contraction when excluding tariff impacts, significantly outperforming management’s guided range of a 25 to 75 basis point decrease.

That outperformance stemmed from reduced promotional activity, lower reserve requirements, and fewer order cancellations in North America. These indicators suggest the domestic market may be stabilizing.

However, challenges persist in other segments. Jefferies anticipates continued revenue headwinds from Direct-to-Consumer channels, EMEA operations, and the Chinese market, though profitability in these regions is expected to trough first.

Core product lines including Classics, Sportswear and Jordan are also projected to remain under pressure. Jefferies doesn’t anticipate these categories returning to growth until the latter half of fiscal 2025.

November’s Investor Day Takes Center Stage

Despite Thursday’s importance, Konik believes the earnings release won’t be the primary catalyst. His attention is fixed on Nike’s scheduled investor day on November 16-17.

Newly appointed CFO David Denton will likely unveil updated financial guidance during that presentation. Konik notes that a new finance chief “owns none of the prior guidance,” creating an opportunity for a reset.

The critical factor, in Konik’s assessment, will be whether Denton establishes realistic fiscal 2027 and 2028 targets that the organization can consistently achieve or exceed. Rebuilding credibility through achievable guidance could serve as the genuine catalyst for sustained stock appreciation.

Nike’s challenging year has extended beyond share price deterioration. Competitor On Holding recently secured a partnership with soccer superstar Kylian Mbappé, snatching the endorsement from Nike in a high-profile loss.

The athletic brand also suffered the indignity of removal from the S&P 100 index on September 21. Market speculation suggests its inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average could potentially be at risk as well.

Wall Street sentiment heading into the earnings print remains fractured. BofA Securities downgraded shares to Underperform, reducing its price target to $30 while highlighting concerns about innovation pipeline challenges.

BTIG holds a contrasting perspective, elevating its price target to $55 while maintaining a Buy recommendation. Stifel adopted a middle-ground approach, trimming its target to $40 while lowering profit forecasts for fiscal 2027 and 2028.

BTIG anticipates first-quarter sales of $11.4 billion, representing a 2% year-over-year contraction, with adjusted earnings of 44 cents per share. Nike will release results before Thursday’s opening bell.