Bitcoin Rangebound Trading and the Risk of an Ethereum Drop: A Trader Forecasts the Moves of Two Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin has remained within the same price range for the third week in a row.
• Ethereum swept local lows but did not fully enter the 4H FVG.
• DXY is testing the lower 4H FVG after a deviation and a sharp dump.
• CPI and PPI will be the week’s key macro triggers.

Market Analysis — Price Pressure, Untouched Extremes, and Preparation for the Inflation Block

Last week locked the crypto market into a state of sticky consolidation. Despite shock data from the US labor market — US Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 162,000 versus the expected 55,000 — local impulses were quickly absorbed by opposing volume.

Charts continue to paint accumulation, forming dense liquidity pools on both sides of the current ranges.

Bitcoin — Prolonged Compression and Defense of the May High

Bitcoin has spent the third consecutive week inside the same price box. An attempt to play out the bullish scenario ended with a sweep of local highs, but the chart still failed to reach the key target zone.

The reversal occurred at $82,282.8 — buyers were short by $546 to activate the daily price imbalance (Daily FVG) at $82,828-$84,000. The May high at $82,828.7 remained completely untouched.

The current structure is forming a double resistance barrier: last week’s high (PWH) at $82,282.8 and the May high at $82,828.7. The former key level at $81,500 has shifted into intermediate resistance.

On the downside, the picture remains frozen. The nearest support is the fresh Daily FVG at $77,000-$78,000. Below it sits a dense cascade of unfilled zones: last week’s low (PWL) at $76,151.9, the $75,588 level, the historical milestones of the 2024 ATH at $73,881.4 and the 2021 ATH at $69,198.7, as well as a deep imbalance at $64,000-$65,000.

August equal lows (EQL) around $62,500 still serve as the final magnet for big capital.

Indicators confirm the calm: the 4H RSI has been stagnating at 48.7 for the second week, and open interest is holding at 106,800 with no signs of aggressive position building or unwinding.

Scenario A — Support at the Imbalance and a Breakout

A dip into the Daily FVG at $77,000-$78,000, with the zone holding as support. From there, a full impulse forms toward the PWH at $82,282.8, breaking through the May extreme.

Scenario B — pool sweep and structure break

An impulsive spike through $82,282.8, pushing above $82,828.7 to force liquidations of short sellers. Failure to hold above the level triggers a sharp correction to the 0.5 Fibo W at $72,513.6.

Scenario C — two-sided sweep

A manipulative wick above $82,828.7, an instant reversal to the PWL at $76,151.9, and then a return to the range. The market maker sweeps stops on both sides of the consolidation while waiting for a fundamental catalyst.

Ethereum — lows swept and a vacuum below price

Ethereum showed similar dynamics, but with a focus on the lower boundaries. The chart successfully swept the local PWL lows, updating the weekly low at $2,355.12.

However, there was no full entry into the 4H FVG — price only tapped the upper boundary of the imbalance and returned to the $2,355-$2,566 range, where it has been for the third week in a row. The upside impulse stalled at $2,547.00, falling $19 short of last month’s high (PMH).

The main threat to the asset is hidden below current levels. The $1,920-$2,220 price gap remains completely untouched. Below it sit the Daily FVG at $1,900-$1,920 and last month’s low (PML) at $1,820.61.

If sellers push through the current support, the drop in this zone will face almost no resistance. Open interest is steadily declining to 2.29 million, pointing to a local deleveraging.

Scenario A — dip into the FVG and bounce

A break of the bullish microstructure and a move below $2355.12 with a full dip into the 4H FVG. Building a base inside the imbalance opens the way toward resistance at $2547–$2566.

Scenario B — structure holds and breakout

Defending pullbacks above $2440 and a follow-through impulse through the PWH at $2547.00, with a confident hold above the PMH at $2566.40 to push toward $2600.

Scenario C — sweep of the monthly high and dump

A liquidity sweep above $2566.40, short-stop hunting, and a sharp reversal that slices through the entire range all the way down to the untouched imbalance at $2100–$2080.

Four-hour ETH/USDT.P chart. Data: TradingView.

Fundamental triggers of the week

• the CPI inflation report. This is the key marker for the week. Consumer price data will be the final argument for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) ahead of the September 16 meeting. Faster inflation will cement the regulator’s hawkish stance, while a slowdown will bring back risk appetite;
• Senate legislative activity. The return of U.S. lawmakers on September 15 comes with expectations of a vote on the CLARITY Act. The decision could trigger a sharp spike in volatility across the entire market;
• Geopolitical factor. The conflict in the Middle East has faded into the background, but a sudden escalation could trigger a disproportionately strong dump in risk assets.

The current positioning of quotes in the middle of the ranges dictates strict risk-management rules: opening new trades from current levels is mathematically unfavorable.

Short positions built from the upper boundaries remain relevant. Decision points are located exclusively at the edges of the ranges: the reaction in the $82,282-$82,828 Bitcoin block to assess the short, and the $77,000-$78,000 zone to take profit and consider speculative buys.

Unfilled daily gaps below remain the market maker’s main medium-term targets.

Are you ready to meet the inflation block with open positions, or is it better to wait for the charts to break out of the three-week ranges?

Dollar Index — Dump After Deviation, 4H FVG Test, and the Calm Before the Inflation Storm

Retrospective and current positioning

Last week for the Dollar Index ended with a telling flush. After a manipulative push above the PWH, updating the high to 99.863 and sweeping short liquidity, DXY saw a hard rejection on the back of Friday’s labor market data, i.e., NFP.

As a result, price sliced vertically through intermediate levels and collapsed into the lower 4H FVG zone at 98.900-99.100, where it is now trying to find a bottom at 98.954.

At this point, the dollar is locally oversold, with the 4H RSI around 37. The market has paused. Monday will see reduced liquidity due to Labor Day in the U.S., so the main resolution shifts to the second half of the week, when the key inflation block is released.

Technical setup and levels

The structure is squeezed between obvious magnets.

• Above: the broken PML at 99.692, the fresh PWH at 99.863, and an unfilled 4H FVG above 99.600. These are targets for a corrective bounce;
• Below: the current working 4H FVG at 98.900-99.100, which serves as the buyers’ first line of defense. Right below it are the PWL at 98.831 and a deeper untouched 4H FVG in the 98.400-98.700 block.

Any Fed rate decision on September 16 will be traded from these boundaries. We highlight three scenarios for inflation week.

Scenario A — loss of support and capitulation into the lower imbalance

DXY fails to hold the current base in the 4H FVG at 98.900–99.100. A breakdown below PWL 98.831 follows, after which the index accelerates into the deep 4H FVG at 98.400–98.700.

This is the most bullish scenario for risk assets, including bitcoin and Ethereum, as it would give them the fuel to break above the upper boundaries of their current ranges.

Scenario B — base holds and a V-shaped reversal

The current 4H FVG acts as rock-solid support. The index builds a position and, on hot inflation data — i.e., PPI/CPI — prints a strong impulse higher, breaking through resistance at 99.692 and moving toward PWH 99.863.

This is the setup in which the crypto market moves to fill the daily gaps left below.

Scenario C — a manipulative PWL sweep and aggressive buyback

Price chops sluggishly into the news release, then makes a sharp squeeze below PWL 98.831 to collect long liquidity, falls short of the deep FVG, and gets bought back in a V-shape to 99.692.

This is a classic trap ahead of a major macro release.

Fundamental triggers for the week

• Monday, September 7 — Labor Day in the US. No Wall Street means a thin order book. Moves can be sharp, but not structural
• Thursday, September 10, 15:30 — producer price index (PPI) and jobless claims. A warm-up ahead of the main day
• Friday, September 11, 15:30 — consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI. These are the final numbers for the Fed. An inflation acceleration would mean a DXY pump, while a slowdown — a dollar dump and a green light for the crypto market.

Trading Plan

Today, with the US holiday backdrop, entering the market means trading noise. Watch DXY’s reaction closely inside the current 4H FVG.

If the dollar starts showing weakness and slides toward PWL 98.831 even before the CPI release, that will be a leading signal for long positions in major crypto assets.

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