Apple (AAPL) Stock Dips Before iPhone 18 Launch: What Analysts Predict

Key Takeaways

• Apple shares declined to approximately $319 before its September 9 “Surprise and Shine” product reveal
• Bank of America maintains Buy rating at $380 target; KeyBanc maintains Sell rating at $250 target
• First foldable iPhone Ultra anticipated with pricing expected to exceed $2,000
• Analysts view potential price hikes as a “negative catalyst” for investor sentiment
• Consensus rating remains Moderate Buy with $337.55 average target, suggesting approximately 5% potential gain

Shares of Apple retreated to approximately $319 on Tuesday as investors await the technology giant’s premier “Surprise and Shine” presentation scheduled for September 9 at its Apple Park headquarters in Cupertino, California.

Apple Inc., AAPL

The presentation carries significant weight as it represents the inaugural major product unveiling under newly appointed CEO John Ternus, who assumed leadership on September 1. Former chief executive Tim Cook has transitioned to the position of executive chairman.

The upcoming reveal is anticipated to rank among Apple’s most substantial product announcements in recent memory.

Bank of America Securities maintained its Buy recommendation on Apple shares with a $380 valuation target. The stock presently changes hands at $320, establishing a market capitalization of $4.67 trillion and a price-to-earnings multiple of 36.92.

BofA anticipates Apple will introduce three new smartphone models: the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and its inaugural foldable offering, potentially branded as the iPhone Ultra or Fold. The Pro variants are projected to maintain their 6.3 and 6.9 inch screen dimensions and operate on the advanced 2nm A20 Pro processor.

The foldable iPhone Ultra is projected to showcase a book-style configuration featuring a 5.5 inch external OLED screen and a 7.8 inch internal display, 12GB of RAM, and storage configurations reaching 2TB. Citi projects the entry price point will surpass $2,000. All three devices are anticipated to debut with iOS 27.

The company is also anticipated to forgo the standard base iPhone version this generation as it continues its focus on premium offerings to enhance profit margins.

KeyBanc Highlights Pricing Concerns

KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel confirmed his Sell recommendation on September 4 with a $250 valuation target, suggesting approximately 24% downside from current levels. He anticipates price escalations will either diminish unit volumes or create pressure on future profitability decisions.

Nispel characterized the presentation as “a likely negative catalyst” for shares, independent of how Apple executes its pricing approach.

DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria remained cautious as well, preserving a Hold recommendation and a $270 valuation target. He highlighted the possibility of revenue contractions next year if the foldable iPhone and widespread price adjustments fail to resonate with buyers.

Financial Outlook Shows Weakness

Apple’s financial landscape entering the presentation includes some challenges. In July, the company projected Q4 revenue spanning $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion, falling short of the Wall Street estimate of $114.95 billion. The shortfall was attributed to escalating memory expenses resulting from component supply constraints.

App Store income in Q4 fiscal 2026 climbed to $6.3 billion, though growth registered merely 0.1% year over year. Evercore ISI additionally observed a 1% year-over-year decrease in App Store income for August.

BofA indicates it interprets App Store metrics as a favorable indicator overall. DA Davidson pointed to Apple’s strengthened AI capabilities as grounds for measured optimism surrounding the foldable device launch.

Beyond the iPhone portfolio, Apple may additionally present Apple Watch Series 12, Ultra 4, AirPods 5, a refreshed Apple TV 4K, and an updated HomePod mini.

Among Wall Street professionals, 31 analysts assign AAPL a Moderate Buy consensus rating, comprising 16 Buys, 11 Holds, and four Sells. The consensus valuation target stands at $337.55.