Bitcoin (BTC) Slides Under $80K as Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb — Traders Eye Key Levels

Key Takeaways

• BTC slipped beneath the $80,000 threshold following robust employment figures that elevated Federal Reserve rate hike expectations to 60%
• The cryptocurrency reached $82,178 last Thursday, marking a three-month peak before reversing course
• Brent crude surged to $97 per barrel driven by escalating U.S.-Iran military confrontations, creating additional headwinds for risk assets
• The Liquid Network experienced a significant security breach resulting in approximately $320 million in losses, with roughly 4,000 BTC removed
• Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States attracted $1 billion in net capital last week, including $175 million on September 4

The leading cryptocurrency is currently changing hands near $79,724 this Monday, reflecting a modest 0.3% decline. This downturn follows Friday’s surprisingly strong employment report that sent shockwaves through risk-sensitive markets.

American businesses created 162,000 new positions in August — a figure that exceeded economist projections by nearly threefold. Meanwhile, the jobless rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.

These employment figures prompted market participants to adjust their expectations, now calculating approximately 60% odds for a Federal Reserve rate increase during the September 15–16 policy meeting. This represents a notable jump from the 49% probability registered before the data release, per CME FedWatch tracking.

The digital asset had momentarily surged past $82,000 during the previous week, reaching its highest point in three months at $82,178 on Thursday. However, this upward momentum dissipated following the employment statistics.

Elevated borrowing costs typically create headwinds for Bitcoin. They increase the opportunity cost of maintaining assets that generate no yield while simultaneously constraining overall financial liquidity.

Energy Market Volatility Compounds Concerns

Crude oil valuations are contributing additional complexity to the market environment. Brent crude advanced toward $97 per barrel on Monday as escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran sparked concerns about potential supply chain interruptions.

American military forces conducted strikes against three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend following Iran’s deployment of ballistic missiles targeting U.S. Navy assets. This development drove energy prices higher and introduced another dimension of market uncertainty.

Market observers are now focused on Thursday’s producer price index release and Friday’s consumer inflation report for additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Liquid Network Suffers Major Security Breach Worth $320 Million

The Liquid Network, a second-layer settlement infrastructure utilized by cryptocurrency exchanges, suspended new transaction processing after approximately $320 million worth of bitcoin disappeared from its federation custody wallet.

Roughly 4,000 of the approximately 4,200 BTC stored in the wallet were extracted. The withdrawals occurred through SideSwap, an authorized platform with operational permissions on the network.

The individuals behind the incident have characterized themselves as “purported white-hat hackers,” although their actual identities and motivations remain undisclosed. Trading platforms have temporarily frozen LBTC deposit and withdrawal functions pending ongoing investigations.

Market analyst Ted Pillows shared observations on X noting that BTC is consolidating around the $80,000 threshold and identified the weekly closing price as the critical indicator to monitor. He highlighted Bitcoin’s proximity to the 50-week moving average, suggesting that a weekly close exceeding this technical level would provide substantial evidence of a bottom formation.

Institutional Investment Remains Robust

Notwithstanding current market pressures, institutional participation continues unabated. Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States registered $175 million in net capital inflows on September 4, marking their third consecutive positive trading session.

BlackRock’s IBIT product dominated with $117 million in contributions, while Fidelity captured $57.22 million. Aggregate ETF inflows throughout the week totaled approximately $1 billion.

Prediction market participants on Kalshi are assigning a 77% likelihood that Bitcoin breaches $85,000 before October 2 arrives. Achieving this target would necessitate an appreciation of approximately 6.3% from present valuations.

Bitcoin’s four-hour relative strength index currently stands at 55.20, indicating neutral momentum conditions. The MACD histogram displays a modest bearish configuration at -66.35, although both MACD trend lines continue trading above the zero threshold.

The critical support zone remains at $79,500. A breakthrough above $82,000 would establish the foundation for a potential advance toward the $85,000 objective.