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Japanese Firms Anticipate Slight Decline in Consumer Price Inflation
A recent survey conducted by the Bank of Japan indicates that large manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect consumer prices to rise by an average of 2.6% over the next year, a slight decrease from the 2.7% projected in the previous survey. Despite this reduction, inflation expectations remain above the central bank's target of 2%. The survey, which included responses from over 9,100 companies between August 26 and September 30, shows that input price pressures among large manufacturers have eased only marginally, suggesting persistent inflation risks.
The sentiment among Japan's large manufacturers improved slightly, with their index rising to +24 from +22 in June, though it fell short of the +25 forecast. In contrast, the large non-manufacturers' index decreased to +35 from +37, also below expectations. Smaller firms showed stronger performance, with the small manufacturers' index increasing to +14, surpassing the forecast of +11. Looking ahead, large manufacturers anticipate their index will decline to +21 by December, while small manufacturers expect a rise to +12, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector.
In terms of business investment, large firms plan to increase capital spending by approximately 11% this fiscal year, slightly below the anticipated 12%. Conversely, small firms are expected to reduce their capital spending by about 5%, aligning with forecasts. The survey also revealed that large manufacturers expect recurring profits to rise by nearly 14%, reflecting a cautious optimism despite the challenges posed by inflation and labor shortages.
Source: KLEA News