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MUFG Predicts US Headline Inflation to Rise to 3.6% Amid Energy Price Surge
MUFG forecasts that the US headline inflation rate will increase to 3.6% in September, primarily driven by rising energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. This surge in energy costs has significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as markets will closely monitor core inflation figures for signs of broader price pressures beyond energy.
The bank anticipates that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, will ease to 0.2% month-on-month in September, down from a 0.3% increase in August. A stronger-than-expected core inflation reading could reignite market expectations for a consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month, following the recent adjustment of the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.
Retail sales data, set to be released on Thursday, is expected to show continued growth in consumer spending during the third quarter, indicating that the economy has managed to absorb the impact of higher energy prices and tighter monetary policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming remarks at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok will also be closely watched for insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and potential future rate adjustments.
Source: KLEA News