Opec+ likely to keep output targets steady at Sunday meeting

• Sources: no change for November
• Output 5m bpd below pre-war level
• No final decision yet

Opec+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil output targets for November steady when they meet on Sunday, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Both sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, and said no final decision had been made.

The online meeting of seven core Opec+ members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – comes as Gulf members have been boosting exports that have been disrupted for months by the Iran war, although most are still pumping well below their output targets.

Opec+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. Opec and authorities in Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The group has been raising its output targets for most of the year but kept them steady for October.

In September it completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel per day supply cut first agreed in 2023.

Reuters reported in July that Opec+ was likely to make no changes to its targets during the fourth quarter as it turns its focus to 2027 quota negotiations. Disruption caused by the Iran war has meant Gulf producers are falling below their quotas.

Opec data showed the seven core Opec+ members produced 25 million bpd in August, up 630,000 bpd from July yet roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels in February.

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Opec+ still has one more layer of production cuts of about 2 million bpd covering most members through the end of 2026.

The group needs to finalise a review of members’ production capacity before setting 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind those cuts, sources have said.

US consultant DeGolyer & MacNaughton is expected to submit its report on capacity soon.

A separate Opec+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide policy, also meets on Sunday to review the market.