Bitcoin Has Risen Above Its Mining Cost for the First Time in 280 Days — Selling Pressure From Miners May Ease

• Bitcoin rose above JPMorgan’s estimated average production cost of $85,000 after spending 280 days below that level.
• Analysts believe this could reduce the risk of forced selling by miners if the level can be held.

JPMorgan analysts noted that bitcoin has climbed above the estimated average production cost of around $85,000 for the first time in 280 days. The last time the asset stayed below this level for a similarly long stretch was in 2018 — when the period lasted about 224 days. The experts said this in comments to The Block.

The production cost of the first cryptocurrency has historically served as a “soft floor” for its price, analysts said. When bitcoin trades below it for an extended period, higher-cost miners become unprofitable: they sell more coins, shut down equipment, or exit the market altogether, JPMorgan explained.

Relief for Miners

During the prolonged period of low profitability, miners adapted by relocating equipment to regions with cheaper electricity, selling older rigs, and putting some capacity into standby mode.

“To the extent this persists, the new backdrop will provide relief to bitcoin miners, thereby reducing the risk of forced selling on their part,” the analysts noted.

At the same time, bitcoin has pulled back slightly and is trading around $84,000. The analysts also noted that the rally, which happened despite the U.S. Senate failing to advance the CLARITY Act, is consistent with investor behavior tied to closing bearish positions.

Miners Shift to AI — Hashrate Drops

A separate focus of the report was the mining industry’s large-scale shift toward artificial intelligence. The Bitcoin network hashrate is down about 19% from its October peak, and mining difficulty has fallen by roughly 15%. Many public mining companies have lowered their hashrate growth forecasts, as long-term AI contracts accelerate the move away from mining.

The experts explained that AI companies are paying sizable premiums for access to power and data centers equipped for intensive computing. AI revenue is more predictable, more stable, and higher per megawatt than bitcoin mining revenue — especially amid subdued prices for the asset through most of 2026. 

As a result, public mining companies are losing network share to private and state-backed operators, they added.

In the end, JPMorgan analysts point to an unexpected positive effect for the network itself. According to them, this structural shift will slow the growth of bitcoin mining costs in the future (except during halving periods), and it will also help prevent excessive concentration of hashrate.

As a reminder, earlier MARA CEO Fred Thiel said that spending energy on AI data centers is far more profitable than mining cryptocurrency.

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