BTC Market Pulse: Week 37

Overview

Bitcoin trades near $79,100, up 0.7% on the week inside a $77,300 to $81,300 range, as the late-August rally gives way to a flat, range-bound market. Spot momentum has cooled sharply, falling 30% to 54.6 and dropping back into the middle of its statistical bands after last week's stretched reading. Spot volume is effectively unchanged at $5.3B, while the spot cumulative volume delta has narrowed from -$84.9M to -$29.6M, so selling pressure is fading rather than turning into conviction buying.

Derivatives positioning keeps building. Futures open interest has risen 1.0% to $37.1B and sits above its upper statistical band, yet long-side funding payments have fallen 32.8% to $1.3M, so leverage is growing without an equally aggressive bid for upside. Perpetual CVD has recovered from -$423.2M to -$62.1M. Options carry the clearest signal: open interest is up 2.1% to $40.1B and also above its upper band, the volatility spread has widened to -20.9% and the 25-delta skew has fallen from 0.79% to -2.05%. Both sit below their lower bands, a combination of implied volatility trading under realized volatility and unusually strong call demand relative to puts.

Institutional demand has re-accelerated. US spot ETFs took in $681.2M of net inflows, up from $247.8M, even as trade volume fell 19.2% to $12.1B. ETF MVRV has swung from -0.54 to 1.31, above its upper band, leaving ETF holders in aggregate profit. On-chain activity is quieter. Entity-adjusted transfer volume is down 12.8% to $5.0B, fee volume is down 4.8% to $213.0K and active addresses are flat at 635.6K, all inside their bands.

Capital flows are the firmest part of the report. Monthly realized cap change has accelerated to 0.8% and hot capital share has climbed to 30.1%, both well above their upper bands, so price-sensitive money keeps entering the network. Profitability is elevated across the supply, with 69.3% of coins in profit, NUPL far above its upper band and the realized profit to loss ratio back at parity at 1.0. In short, price is flat while leverage, new capital and profit realization all build, and options positioning leans toward upside exposure.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. 

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