Wintermute: Bitcoin Has Lost ETF Support and Moved Into a Neutral Phase Ahead of the Fed Decision

• Outflows from bitcoin ETFs turned negative on a weekly basis for the first time since June, Wintermute experts noted.
• At the same time, they do not rule out the broader thesis that the crypto market’s uptrend will continue.

After the shift in ETF flows, the crypto market moved into a neutral phase ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision. This was stated by Wintermute analysts.

ETFs no longer support bitcoin

The experts emphasized that during the shortened holiday week, $463 million was withdrawn from spot bitcoin ETFs. This is the first week of net outflows since June.

Wintermute points out that ETF inflows were one of the key drivers behind bitcoin’s rise from $63,000 to $82,000. When ETF-driven demand flipped the other way, bitcoin lost about $3,500.

In the firm’s view, this shift is important for the market’s next move. If ETFs do not return to steady inflows, bitcoin currently has no obvious source of new demand capable of pushing it out of its current range.

At the same time, Ethereum showed stronger performance. Spot ETH ETFs attracted $197 million over the week, with $216 million coming on Friday alone after U.S. inflation data was released. From Tuesday through Thursday, the funds, by contrast, recorded outflows.

According to Wintermute, the $76,000-$82,000 range has held for about four weeks. Since August, bitcoin has rejected the upper boundary three times, while the $72,000 level has still not been tested.

The firm believes that without a recovery in ETF-driven demand, the leading cryptocurrency will likely continue trading within this range.

Thus, the return of inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs remains an important factor for the market to continue its upward move. Their absence, Wintermute estimates, deprives the market of some of the arguments for opening new positions right ahead of the Fed’s decision.

What could determine the crypto market’s next move?

In Wintermute’s view, the first negative week for bitcoin ETFs since June is sufficient reason to shift from a moderately optimistic to a neutral market assessment.

The firm notes that since August, the case for the leading cryptocurrency’s rise had been capital rotating from overvalued stocks into bitcoin via ETFs. Over the past week, that flow reversed, and bitcoin fell more sharply than the stock market.

At the same time, Wintermute does not dismiss the broader thesis that the crypto market’s upward move will continue. However, without a rebound in demand via ETFs, the firm sees insufficient grounds for bitcoin to break out of the $76,000–$82,000 range.

An additional factor for the market this week will be the Fed’s interest rate decision. Wintermute expects that the US central bank’s comments on its next policy steps will matter for the short-term trend in crypto assets.

The second half of September, according to the firm’s forecast, will be calmer in terms of macroeconomic events. Therefore, this week could be important in shaping the crypto market’s further momentum in Q4 2026.

As a reminder, earlier analysts pointed to signals of a possible continuation of the bitcoin and Ethereum rally.

Сообщение Wintermute: Bitcoin Has Lost ETF Support and Moved Into a Neutral Phase Ahead of the Fed Decision появились сначала на INCRYPTED.