Adobe (ADBE) Stock: Analysts Split on Price Targets Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Key Takeaways

• RBC Capital increased ADBE’s price target to $315 from $285, anticipating strong ARR performance in Q3 FY26 results due September 10
• Barclays upgraded its target to $295 from $250, maintaining an Equalweight stance on the stock
• Consensus estimates call for Q3 earnings of $6.08 per share with revenue of $6.69 billion, representing roughly 11.7% annual growth
• Morgan Stanley diverged from peers, cutting Adobe to Underweight with a $240 price target citing AI disruption risks
• Current Street consensus of $260.98 suggests approximately 7% potential downside from present trading levels

With fiscal Q3 2026 results scheduled for September 10, Adobe is drawing fresh analyst attention as the software giant prepares to report. ADBE shares are currently changing hands near $279, declining roughly 2.2% in today’s session.

Adobe Inc., ADBE

Matthew Swanson from RBC Capital upgraded his price objective to $315 from $285 while maintaining his Buy recommendation. His estimates project earnings at $6.08 per share with revenue reaching $6.7 billion, aligning closely with Street forecasts. The more significant prediction centers on annual recurring revenue, where Swanson anticipates Adobe will surpass the FactSet consensus estimate of $27.47 billion.

Annual recurring revenue represents the metric market participants will scrutinize most intensely. This figure captures the strength of Adobe’s subscription model and serves as a forward-looking indicator for upcoming revenue performance.

Swanson additionally highlighted strengthening investor sentiment across software equities as a recent positive catalyst for ADBE. He emphasized that sustained ARR expansion will prove critical for driving valuation multiples higher. His elevated target also incorporates broader multiple expansion trends throughout the software industry.

Barclays independently increased its price objective to $295 from $250 while maintaining an Equalweight designation. The bank forecasts $400 million in net new ARR for Q3, representing a sequential decrease that analysts attribute to elevated freemium adoption. Barclays identifies a potential bull case scenario of $420 million or higher should web engagement and application downloads maintain momentum.

Forward Guidance and FY27 Projections

Looking toward Q4 FY26, Barclays anticipates net new ARR of $770 million, benefiting from typical enterprise demand patterns. Their FY27 net new ARR forecast falls beneath the consensus figure of $2.34 billion, although Barclays observes that accounting for the Semrush acquisition and an additional week would indicate underlying growth exceeding 20% annually.

Barclays’ updated $295 target reflects approximately 11 times FY27 earnings per share estimates. The firm suggested that incoming executive leadership may adopt a conservative approach when establishing FY27 guidance.

Adobe has yet to announce a successor CEO following Shantanu Narayen’s March 2026 declaration that he would depart after an 18-year tenure. A new CFO selection may also be forthcoming. Swanson observed that any executive announcements during the earnings release could trigger stock movement.

Optimism isn’t universal across Wall Street. Morgan Stanley shifted Adobe to Underweight while reducing its target to $240, expressing concern that AI-driven substitution threatens Creative Cloud’s recurring revenue foundation.

Current Analyst Landscape

Citi elevated its target to $301, referencing higher software sector multiples, while cautioning about an anticipated 26% decline in net new ARR during the year’s second half. CLSA launched coverage with an Outperform rating and $300 price objective.

According to TipRanks data, ADBE holds a Hold consensus rating derived from nine Buy recommendations, 16 Hold ratings, and four Sell calls issued within the last three months. The consensus price target of $260.98 indicates potential downside of approximately 7% from present levels.

Adobe will release its Q3 FY26 financial results on September 10.