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      Bank of America Warns of Downside Risks for Gold Amid Rising Oil Prices

      Bank of America (BofA) has issued a cautionary outlook for gold prices, attributing potential declines to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has kept oil prices elevated. The bank forecasts an average gold price of $4,000 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026, with a risk of falling to $3,750. BofA maintains a long-term bullish view, projecting gold could average $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027, but warns that current geopolitical tensions and fragile investor positioning could hinder this recovery.

      Since oil prices surpassed $90 per barrel on August 20, gold has experienced an approximate 8% decline, while oil prices have risen around 15%. This increase in oil prices has contributed to inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy, which, combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and rising yields, has diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven asset. BofA identifies a spike in oil prices as the primary threat to its gold price forecast, suggesting that if crude were to reach $150 per barrel, gold could average around $3,500 in 2027, a scenario the bank does not currently anticipate.

      Investor confidence in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains fragile, with BofA noting that holders have largely maintained their positions despite market pressures. However, the bank cautions that without a resolution to the Middle East conflict, a rapid sell-off could occur, further driving prices down. Additionally, central banks, particularly in energy-importing nations, have shifted to net sellers of gold, with approximately 60 tonnes sold in the second quarter of 2026, adding another layer of risk to the market.

      © 2026 KLEA News. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

      Source: KLEA News

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