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Citadel Securities has adopted a more positive outlook on US equities as it approaches the fourth quarter of 2026, following a significant selloff in September that the firm believes has cleared excess leverage from the market. Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity-derivatives strategy at Citadel, previously cautioned clients about potential declines in stock prices but now views any early-quarter weakness as a buying opportunity. He emphasizes that the reset in September has largely completed, setting the stage for a recovery.
Rubner outlines five key factors supporting this optimistic view. Firstly, historical data shows that in midterm election years, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of over 5.5% in the fourth quarter, compared to just under 3% in all years. Secondly, a significant portion of S&P 500 companies will enter open buyback windows by early November, which could stimulate demand. Thirdly, the reduction in leverage has been most pronounced in sectors where sentiment had previously soured, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence. Additionally, September typically marks a low point for retail buying, which tends to rebound in October. Lastly, the upcoming earnings season, starting mid-October, follows a strong second quarter with notable earnings growth and upward revisions.
Despite this positive outlook, Citadel acknowledges potential macroeconomic challenges, including the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and inflationary pressures from rising oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The firm is closely monitoring the upcoming earnings reports and buyback activities to assess whether the anticipated influx of investor participation will materialize. A comprehensive fourth-quarter strategy is expected to be released soon, with mid-October earnings serving as a critical test for the market's recovery.
Source: KLEA News