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      Gulf Oil Exports Recover Despite Regional Tensions, Brent Prices Remain High

      Recent analyses by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have revealed that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded significantly, even amidst ongoing regional conflicts. Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf exports, including what it terms 'dark exports', reached 23.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) last week, returning to the average levels seen in 2025 after a doubling of volumes in September. In contrast, JPMorgan's more conservative estimate places the 10-day average at 20.5 mb/d, or 89% of 2025 levels, highlighting a notable recovery in oil export capabilities despite various disruptions.

      This resurgence in oil exports has occurred despite significant challenges, including damage to the Saudi East-West pipeline, which temporarily reduced flows to the Yanbu terminal, and ongoing blockades by Houthi forces at the Bab-al-Mandab Strait. Nevertheless, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, have remained robust, with JPMorgan reporting that these flows are approaching late-June highs of nearly 13 mb/d, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia.

      However, the movement of oil products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remains constrained, with Goldman estimating these exports at only about 50% of normal levels. This discrepancy is attributed to refinery outages in the Middle East and the higher risks associated with transporting refined products compared to crude oil. Goldman maintains a forecast of Brent crude prices falling to $85 per barrel by the end of the year, while current prices hover around $120, a gap attributed to a risk premium stemming from potential escalations in the region and low global stock levels outside of OECD commercial inventories.

      © 2026 KLEA News. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

      Source: KLEA News

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