Gulf suppliers urged to halt Hormuz crossings

• Iranian attacks intensifying
• Security company warning
• Difficult to assess vessel risk

A maritime security company that advises major Gulf suppliers has urged shipowners to suspend transits through the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian attacks intensify.

Marisks, whose risk assessments inform shipping operators and Gulf governments, said Tehran’s forces had changed how they targeted vessels.

Rather than singling out ships, they have begun to attack vessels within convoys travelling under US Navy guidance, regardless of affiliation or cargo.

They are “indiscriminately attacking anything that is within the convoy”, Marisks CEO Dimitris Maniatis told AGBI.

He said Tehran’s forces were firing volleys of drones and anti-ship missiles at ships using the southern corridor off Oman. The apparent effort to “overwhelm” aerial defences and “hit whatever they can within that convoy” prompted Marisks to advise clients against making the crossing.

Maniatis stressed that his company’s recommendations were advisory, with shipowners retaining the final call on whether to cross Hormuz.

“It is the owner’s decision. Ultimately, we advise them on what we believe they should be doing,” he said.

At least 14 attacks targeting tankers and gas carriers have been recorded since September 28, he said. This is the highest frequency of attacks since the conflict began in February.

Maniatis warned that Iran could continue to “fire blindly”, making it difficult to assess the threat to individual vessels.

Risk vs reward

Marisks began advising shipowners to suspend crossings on Wednesday. The Greek-based company reassesses security conditions twice a day and could revise its advice.

Its warning raises questions about an expensive tanker shuttle system that has helped Gulf oil producers restore exports.

“Right now, it’s extremely dangerous for any vessel to cross it because we cannot identify the risk profile for each and every vessel based on affiliation,” Maniatis said.

“It doesn’t matter what kind of vessel is within that convoy. It’s a matter of who is the unlucky one to get hit.”

Marisks provides maritime security services, including armed guards and escort vessels, alongside intelligence and risk assessments. It also operates in the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab strait, Gulf of Guinea, Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden.

Some operators are still prepared to accept the danger because of exceptionally high freight rates. Daily earnings for supertankers sailing from the Gulf to China have exceeded $1.2 million per vessel.

“When they’re making the rates that they are right now, many shipowners are willing to take that risk,” Maniatis said.

Shipping traffic slows

Traffic through Hormuz has declined this week.

Just seven commodity vessels – carrying oil, gas and dry bulk cargo – crossed the strait on Tuesday. This is the lowest daily total since July 23, according to maritime intelligence agency Kpler.

Crude flows through Hormuz also fell 27 percent to about 10.1 million barrels a day, from a wartime high the previous week, Kpler reported.

Angelica Kemene, head of group strategic intelligence at Optima Shipping Services, said there were signs the attacks were disrupting crossings, although owners willing to accept the risks were continuing to operate.

“Red Sea and Gulf of Oman exports have partly offset the fall, but shuttle operations remain costly and are tying up scarce tanker capacity,” she told AGBI.

“Rates are already exceptionally high, so further attacks could add upward pressure.”

US Central Command has been instructed to prepare for renewed strikes against Iran, which could happen before the US midterm elections in November, news outlet Axios has reported.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened further strikes against Iran, but previously stopped short of carrying out some of those threats.

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