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Gold prices rebounded this week after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would not engage in military action against Iran before the upcoming midterm elections. This statement led to a swift market reaction, as investors unwound the escalation premium that had built up due to earlier speculation about potential military strikes against Iran.
Following Trump's comments, oil prices, real yields, and the U.S. dollar all experienced declines, contributing to a rally in gold. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that Tehran is currently reviewing Washington's response to its proposals and expects to provide a reply in the coming days. A favorable outcome from these discussions could shift the outlook for gold from neutral to bullish, as reduced geopolitical tensions may further lower oil prices and inflation expectations, alleviating concerns over interest rate hikes.
Next week, attention will also be on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could prompt a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate expectations, potentially putting additional pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a softer CPI report could ease rate hike concerns and provide further support for the precious metal.
Source: KLEA News