Iran oil exports through Hormuz dry up under US blockade

• Crude revenues may soon collapse
• No shipments since September
• Empty tankers unable to return

Iranian crude exports have ground to a halt under the US naval blockade, while revenues from oil already shipped could fall to zero by mid-December, according to shipping intelligence companies.

The blockade has choked off Iran’s main source of export revenue, with crude shipments through Hormuz falling from more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) before the war to zero since September.

Twenty tankers that were outside the strait when the blockade began have since discharged their cargoes and now sit empty off Sri Lanka, unable to return to Iran to reload. A prolonged loss of oil revenue could put Iran’s leadership under growing financial pressure.

“Since September, Iranian crude loadings have largely dried up,” said Varaleka Pant, senior market analyst at London-headquartered Vortexa.

Iranian crude held aboard tankers has also fallen to around 80 million barrels, its lowest level since 2023, from 129 million barrels at the beginning of July.

“The US blockade has restricted new Iranian crude transits while barrels already at sea continue to be delivered,” Pant said.

Attacks on tankers transiting Hormuz have increased in recent weeks, with more reported over the weekend by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The energy chokepoint used to carry a fifth of the world’s oil supplies each day.

The disruption in the strait has caused exports and government revenues to slump in the Middle East, including in Kuwait and Iraq. The United Arab Emirates and Oman, however, have earned windfalls because they can export outside the strait, although this does not capture the wider economic impact of the war such as higher costs and losses, especially in tourism and logistics.

The International Energy Agency estimates that Iran produced an average of 1.9 million bpd in September, down from 3.6 million in February before the US and Israel initiated the war.

Iran’s central bank governor told an International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Bangkok last week that US claims of an economic collapse in Iran are an illusion.

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The US in August launched ‘Operation Economic Outcast’, a fresh sanctions campaign aimed at cutting off Iran’s remaining links to international trade and finance, including by targeting its oil exports and threatening penalties against foreign companies that continue doing business with Tehran.

Iran’s economy is expected to contract by 7.6 percent in 2026, according to the IMF’s latest forecasts.

Commodities intelligence company Kpler has warned that Iran’s crude oil revenues could fall to zero by mid-December as the last shipments reach buyers and payments dry up.

Iran is still exporting some liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), although volumes fell 48 percent month-on-month to 92,000 barrels per day in September, their lowest level since at least January 2023.

LPG, used for cooking, heating and petrochemical production, is a much smaller source of revenue for Iran than crude oil.

Most shipments are going to China and India and appear to be linked to contracts signed before the blockade rather than new sales, Pant said. Exports fell further to around 40,000 bpd in the first 10 days of October.