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During the European trading session, the final Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Spain is scheduled for release. However, this report is not expected to significantly impact market movements, as traders typically focus on preliminary data. The European Central Bank (ECB) is not anticipated to alter its stance based on this final reading, leading to a muted market reaction ahead of more critical data from the United States.
The American session will center on the highly anticipated US CPI report, with year-over-year headline CPI projected to rise to 3.6%, up from 3.4%. The month-over-month measure is expected to increase to 0.6% from 0.4%. Core CPI is also expected to show a slight uptick, with year-over-year figures forecasted at 2.5%, compared to 2.4% previously. Market analysts are particularly focused on the month-over-month core inflation data, as it is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions amid ongoing inflationary pressures linked to the US-Iran conflict.
Market reactions will depend heavily on the CPI results. A lower-than-expected reading could lead to a short-term rally in risk assets, while a hotter report may prompt traders to anticipate a quicker response from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate hikes. The Fed has previously indicated a cautious approach to rate increases, suggesting that a core CPI month-over-month figure of 0.4% or higher could compel them to act sooner than expected.
Source: KLEA News