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PBOC Expected to Set USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.7085
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is anticipated to establish the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7085, a significant indicator in Asian foreign exchange markets. This fixing mechanism has gained prominence recently as the central bank has shifted its approach from restraining the yuan's appreciation to allowing a more gradual increase. Over the past month, the midpoint has been strengthened for eight consecutive sessions, marking the longest streak since 2023, and reaching its highest level since February 2023.
For nearly a year, the PBOC had set its daily guidance weaker than market expectations, which traders interpreted as an effort to slow the yuan's rise. However, in September, the gap between the fixing and market estimates has narrowed, suggesting a change in the central bank's stance. The onshore yuan has traded at its strongest levels since January 2023, while the offshore rate has reached levels last seen in July 2022. Despite this, the fixing remains set below market forecasts, indicating that the PBOC is allowing appreciation on its own terms.
The daily fixing reflects various inputs, including the previous day's closing price and broader international foreign exchange conditions. It serves as a policy signal, with a stronger-than-expected midpoint indicating a resistance to depreciation, while a weaker fixing may suggest tolerance for a softer currency. The balance the PBOC is managing is crucial, as a firmer yuan can support capital stability and reduce import costs, but a rapid rise could undermine export competitiveness amid a softening domestic economy.
Source: KLEA News