SanDisk (SNDK) Stock Down 17% This Quarter Despite 628% Annual Surge as Analysts Stay Bullish

Key Takeaways

• SanDisk (SNDK) shares declined 17% throughout the third quarter while maintaining a remarkable 628% year-to-date increase.
• Bernstein maintains its Outperform rating with a $3,000 price objective for SanDisk, suggesting 73% potential upside.
• The firm also sustains its Outperform stance on Micron (MU) with a $1,300 target, indicating 22% potential gains.
• Industry forecasts suggest DRAM and NAND pricing could surge approximately 20% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
• Market watchers view SanDisk’s October 29 earnings release as a potential catalyst for the stock.

Shares of SanDisk (SNDK) finished Wednesday’s trading session at $1,739.89, registering a 0.59% daily increase. The memory chip manufacturer experienced a 17% decline throughout the third quarter, contrasting with the S&P 500’s 4.3% advance during the identical period. Nevertheless, SanDisk maintains an impressive 628% year-to-date rally.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman continues to champion his optimistic stance on the stock. The investment firm reaffirmed its Outperform rating alongside a $3,000 price objective for SanDisk, representing 73% potential appreciation from present levels, per TipRanks data.

Bernstein additionally sustained its Outperform designation on Micron (MU), establishing a $1,300 price objective that suggests 22% upside potential. Both recommendations rest on a unified premise: memory chip supply remains constrained, and this scarcity will persist in the near term.

The firm anticipates traditional DRAM and NAND pricing to increase approximately 20% sequentially in Q3 2026. Bernstein believes this supply-constrained environment may extend through 2027, although certain long-term contractual arrangements might limit price ceiling potential.

Long-Term Contracts Provide Strategic Advantage

Newman highlighted eight extended-term SanDisk agreements collectively valued at $93.9 billion. These contracts are projected to fulfill half of SanDisk’s bit requirements in 2027 and approximately two-thirds in 2028.

Within these arrangements sits $16.5 billion in financial commitments, featuring pricing floor and ceiling mechanisms. This framework could shield SanDisk should NAND pricing experience downward pressure in future periods.

During its August investor presentation, SanDisk outlined long-range projections calling for mid-to-high teens revenue expansion. The company additionally provided guidance targeting approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margins spanning fiscal 2028 through 2030.

Citigroup analyst Asiya Merchant noted that SanDisk’s narrative emphasizes a fundamental shift in NAND demand patterns toward sustained structural growth. She identified datacenter requirements, hyperscale AI infrastructure rollouts, and enterprise SSD penetration as emerging growth catalysts, displacing traditional consumer upgrade cycles.

Micron Results May Preview Industry Trends

Market participants could gain early insight into Bernstein’s memory chip thesis when Micron delivers its fiscal fourth-quarter results. Street consensus anticipates Micron’s revenue will surge 354% to $51.4 billion, with earnings climbing to $31.73 per share from $3.03 in the year-ago period.

Bernstein’s Mark Li elevated his Micron projections as well. He currently forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue of $130.1 billion, revised upward from his previous $122.6 billion estimate, with adjusted earnings of $73.78 per share, increased from $67.39.

The broader Wall Street consensus reflects slightly more conservative positioning than Bernstein’s outlook. TipRanks’ average Micron price target of $1,469.25 suggests 38% upside potential, while its SanDisk consensus target of $2,195.29 implies 27% appreciation.

Market analysts have attributed the Q3 decline in SanDisk shares to profit-taking following an extraordinary rally, combined with persistent concerns regarding AI spending momentum and potential NAND price softness in 2027. Industry observers maintain that no fundamental business deterioration justifies the recent selloff.

SanDisk is scheduled to announce earnings on October 29. This reporting date is emerging as the next critical checkpoint for validating whether the memory sector growth narrative remains intact.