Bitcoin’s (BTC) Rally Looks Strong, But the Real Money Behind It Is Still Missing

Bitcoin’s recent recovery has strengthened considerably, but Darkfost’s latest findings suggest that liquidity is still lagging behind the price recovery.

The cryptocurrency has climbed roughly 40% from July’s low of $58,500 to briefly near $82,000 in a span of two months, yet spot demand remains relatively weak.

Troubling Weakness

According to Darkfost’s latest findings, the 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta is still sitting in neutral territory. Futures activity tells a different story, however, as buyers have clearly taken the upper hand.

The lack of stronger incoming liquidity can also be seen in stablecoin reserves on exchanges, particularly Binance. At the peak of the current cycle, Binance’s stablecoin reserves reached a new platform record of more than $50 billion. But that trend reversed sharply from October onward, as reserves fell by nearly $7 billion.

During the height of the correction, investor demand contracted so severely that the 90-day change in stablecoin market capitalization held in Binance’s reserves fell to -17%. Conditions have improved since then, although the recovery remains limited. The 90-day change has climbed back to -1.6%, while Binance’s stablecoin reserves have increased by $1.6 billion over the past month.

Darkfost believes this is a positive short-term development, but not yet strong enough to signal a meaningful return of liquidity. At the same time, Bitcoin’s momentum has turned clearly positive, as seen with its daily RSI reaching 67. The 7-day and 21-day EMAs have turned upward as well and crossed back above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.

The analyst added that a clean move above $80,000 could be the level needed for liquidity to return more decisively.

Bitcoin’s bullish setup remains intact as long as BTC holds above $74,000, according to Daan Crypto Trades, but the next major test sits at $83,000. The analyst said that the market has been moving sideways, creating a compressed setup that could lead to a significant move once either side breaks. A break above $83,000 would strengthen the upside setup and open the door to a larger move, while losing the support would weaken the current bullish bias.

What’s Next?

Bitcoin whales have barely changed their positions over the past week as they hold around 5.23 million BTC. The lack of meaningful accumulation or distribution comes as markets head into a packed stretch of macro and policy events that could trigger a sharp move.

The first major tests are the US PPI and CPI reports. The latter is likely to carry greater weight as investors reassess expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Current market odds put the chance of a September rate hike at 60%, despite most economists expecting rates to remain unchanged.

The crypto market also faces a significant political catalyst on September 15, when the Senate is scheduled to vote on advancing the CLARITY Act. The following day brings the Fed’s rate decision, Kevin Warsh’s press conference, and updated economic projections, before the Bank of Japan closes out the week with its own rate announcement.