BTC Market Pulse: Week 39

Overview

Bitcoin has touched $86k, up more than 10% from last Sunday's close and back above $80k for the first time in nearly two weeks. Spot buyers did the work: taker flow on exchanges flipped from net selling to net buying, volume rose with it, and momentum turned positive without getting stretched. Monday's leg higher came with a wave of short liquidations rather than fresh selling.

Leverage is building into the move. Futures open interest sits above its high band and longs are paying up in funding, also above its band, while perpetual taker flow swung from heavy net selling to net buying. Options open interest is elevated too, above its high band near $41B, yet the volatility spread has fallen further below its low band: option markets price less movement than the market delivers. Skew has edged toward puts but stays inside its range.

ETF demand lags the tape. Weekly netflow is still negative at roughly $300M and below its low band, while ETF trading volume jumped and ETF holders moved further into profit. On-chain activity picked up within its normal range: transfer volume and active addresses rose, and fees held flat.

Capital flows stay constructive. The monthly change in realized cap is above its high band, a sign that new money keeps entering at higher prices, and hot capital share sits near the top of its range. Profitability is elevated and rising: about two thirds of supply is in profit, unrealized gains are above their band, and realized profit-taking is above its band. In short, spot and perpetual buyers drive the move, leverage and profit-taking rise with it, and ETF flows are the one reading still pointing the other way.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. 

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