Fidelity: Correlation Between U.S. Treasury Yields and Bitcoin Hits All-Time High

PANews reported on October 17 that, according to Fidelity Digital Assets' latest analysis, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently rose to its highest level since Bitcoin's inception. Meanwhile, U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion, a record high, and interest expenses have exceeded Medicare to become the second-largest spending item in the federal budget. Historically, Bitcoin had essentially no correlation with the 10-year real interest rate, but in recent years it has turned positively correlated, with the correlation exceeding 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin rose nearly 30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 10% over the same period.

Fidelity noted that against a backdrop of high debt and mounting fiscal pressure, Bitcoin—with its fixed supply and transparent issuance mechanism—is increasingly viewed as a potential asset for hedging against currency devaluation and sovereign debt risk. If current trends continue, interest expenses may soon become the largest item in the federal budget.