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Fidelity Digital Assets Reports Record Correlation Between Bitcoin and US Treasury Yields
A study released by Fidelity Digital Assets on October 15, 2026, reveals a significant shift in the relationship between Bitcoin and US Treasury yields. The research indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin's market capitalization and the real rate on 10-year US Treasury bonds has reached a record high of 0.6, marking a departure from the historical trend where Bitcoin typically exhibited a negative or near-zero correlation with Treasury yields.
The report attributes this change to increasing concerns over US fiscal health, as the national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Interest payments on this debt have become the second-largest expense in the federal budget, overtaking Medicare. Fidelity's Vice President of Research, Chris Kuiper, noted that investors may be turning to Bitcoin as a hedge against these fiscal pressures, given its capped supply of 21 million coins and a transparent issuance schedule.
The study highlights that Bitcoin's price surged nearly 30% in the two months leading up to the report, coinciding with a more than 10% rise in 10-year Treasury rates. This new dynamic suggests that Bitcoin may no longer behave as traditional portfolio models predict, potentially altering how traders approach hedging strategies. The durability of this correlation will be closely monitored, especially amid ongoing fiscal policy discussions and budget negotiations.
Source: KLEA News