HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's direction hinges on CPI, the $81,000 lower bound may be tested first

PANews, October 14 — Bitcoin has pulled back from around $86,000 since early October and has been oscillating between $81,000 and $84,000 in recent days, while the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields stayed elevated. In response, HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes a downside break of the range is more likely. The September ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, and the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations rebounded to 4.7% in October. With price components and inflation expectations rising in tandem, the probability of this Thursday's CPI coming in above expectations is not low. If that materializes, year-end rate-hike pricing will strengthen further, and the $81,000 lower bound will be tested first; only if CPI comes in below expectations will a breakout above the $84,000 upper bound be sustainable.

Chip stocks have continued to decline recently, mainly driven by a repricing within the sector of the pace of AI capital expenditure and hardware earnings expectations, which is an industry-level alpha event. By comparison, Bitcoin's pullback has been noticeably smaller, indicating that its current pricing anchor leans more toward macro liquidity, with its correlation to the AI narrative weakening — the two are now driven by diverging factors. However, this divergence is temporary: once the U.S. dollar and long-end rates regain dominance over pricing, the linkage will strengthen rapidly, and Thursday evening's CPI release is the nearest window to test this.