HTX DeepThink: US-Japan Tightening Could Resonate, Stocks and Crypto Face Simultaneous Deleveraging Risk

PANews, October 9 – Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, noted that the core tension for global risk assets has shifted from whether the Fed would hike in October to how long US rates stay elevated, the normalization of Japan's monetary policy, and the potential withdrawal of global leveraged funds. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said further policy tightening may still be needed over the next six to nine months. Although the market expects a pause in October and another hike in December, US Treasury yields remain elevated and the liquidity environment has not improved, putting pressure on both US equity valuations and crypto assets.

BTC's drop below $83,000 reflects a clear decline in willingness to allocate capital in a high-rate environment. If US inflation data in mid-October continues to beat expectations, the probability of a December hike could rise further, pushing up real US Treasury yields. In the short term, attention should be paid to the buying support near $80,000; if spot ETF outflows persist and BTC fails to reclaim $83,000, it could test the $76,000–$78,000 area further. ETH and altcoins carry higher leverage and thinner liquidity, making their deleveraging risk more pronounced.

The Bank of Japan could become an underestimated risk in late October. As Japan gradually exits its ultra-loose policy, yen funding costs rise, and carry trades that previously borrowed low-interest yen to allocate to risk assets such as US equities face unwinding pressure. Once the yen appreciates rapidly, investors may be forced to sell dollar assets to repay yen liabilities, creating a negative feedback loop of "yen appreciation, asset declines, and leveraged unwinding." The market volatility in August 2024 has already demonstrated the amplifying effect of this mechanism. If USD/JPY quickly breaks below 155, it could signal rising carry-trade unwinding risk, though this still needs to be confirmed alongside cross-asset volatility and capital flows.

On the US equity side, the mid-October earnings season will be a key watershed. The AI supply chain still has capex and earnings support, but high-valuation tech stocks are extremely sensitive to real interest rates, and crypto assets that lack earnings support and rely more on fresh liquidity could face greater pressure. Overall, the market is more inclined toward weak, range-bound trading, with technical rebounds followed by another test of the lows. If US inflation cools, Treasury yields fall, and the yen remains stable, BTC and the Nasdaq still have opportunities for a phased recovery; if high US rates and rapid yen appreciation resonate, a new round of simultaneous deleveraging in stocks and crypto could emerge in late October.