River Forecasted Bitcoin at $840,000 within 5 Years and Advised Allocating 10% of Portfolio to Asset

Published: September 3, 2026 – 11:08 UTC

River projected the leading cryptocurrency could rise to $840,000.
It sees institutional demand as the main driver.
The company also recommends allocating 10% of a portfolio to bitcoin.

U.S. financial firm River, in its report, forecast that the price of bitcoin could reach between $250,000 and $840,000 over the next three to five years if the cryptocurrency’s share in investment portfolios continues to grow.

According to analysts’ estimates, a potential inflow of $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion into the asset could lift its market capitalization to $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion, and the asset itself could become a more familiar component of traditional portfolios.

River emphasized that the forecast is based on a number of assumptions and may not materialize. Capital flowing into bitcoin could end up being either lower or higher than the stated range.

Experts noted that bitcoin is currently owned by only about 4% of the world’s population, while among investment advisers its average share in portfolios remains at just 0.008%.

At the same time, the situation is gradually changing: 29 out of the 30 largest RIA firms in the U.S. already hold bitcoin, although the median allocation is only 0.1%.

As a reminder, Binance founder CZ recently calculated that, over time, it will soon be difficult for millionaires to buy 1 BTC.

River Urges Allocating up to 10% of a Portfolio to Bitcoin

River devoted a separate section of the report to the question of the optimal share of the leading cryptocurrency in a portfolio. The company believes that for a long-term investor, an allocation of at least 10% is appropriate.

Analysts argue that the traditional 60/40 model — which assumes 60% equities and 40% bonds — has lost some of its advantages due to high inflation, rising government debt, and a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds.

Previously, we wrote that Bank of America considers it appropriate to allocate up to 4% of a portfolio to cryptocurrencies, while BlackRock recommends keeping bitcoin’s share at around 1% to 2% of a portfolio.

In River’s view, bitcoin can serve three functions at once:

Diversify an investment portfolio
Serve as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement
Provide upside growth potential

At the same time, the company acknowledges bitcoin’s main drawback is its high volatility. That is why it calls 10% a baseline benchmark for a typical long-term investor, while the specific allocation should depend on the time horizon, conviction in the asset, the size of one’s financial cushion, and the presence of other hard assets in the portfolio.

River also noted that as of August 2026, bitcoin accounts for about 0.5% of all global financial assets. The company calls this share a kind of minimum: a portfolio holding fewer coins is effectively betting that the cryptocurrency will lose value or relevance.

According to the report, a portfolio with a 10% bitcoin allocation over the past ten years would have ended the period at $60,595 versus $25,364 for the traditional 60/40 model. At the same time, the maximum drawdown for such a portfolio increased by only six percentage points.

Institutional Demand for Bitcoin

River expects bitcoin adoption among financial advisers and other investors to gradually increase. According to a Bitwise survey, the share of advisers allocating funds to cryptoassets rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025. Another 56% plan to add cryptocurrencies to portfolios or are considering doing so.

If the pace of bitcoin adoption holds at least at half of the 2025 level, in three to five years the cryptocurrency could already be used by 45% to 55% of investment advisers.

River uses a more conservative scenario — 20% to 40% of portfolios with an average allocation of 2% to 4% to the asset.

Other Analysts Also Expect Significant Growth for the Asset

River’s forecast with an upper bound of $840,000 adds to a range of other estimates for bitcoin’s future price. In particular, Bernstein analysts expect the leading cryptocurrency to reach around $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029 under the base case, while a potential peak of $500,000 in 2029 is possible under a more optimistic scenario. The firm’s long-term target is $1 million by the end of 2033.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong previously said that bitcoin could reach $400,000 by 2030, while analyst PlanB, for his part, allows for the coin rising to $500,000 in the 2026–2028 period.

Ark Invest projects an even higher range — from $300,000 to $1.5 million by 2030. The firm links this to the market’s institutionalization, the development of Bitcoin ETFs, and corporate reserves.

At the same time, there are also far more pessimistic estimates. Cyber Capital founder Justin Bons warned of a possible bitcoin collapse on a 7–11-year horizon due to a shrinking network security budget as a result of halvings, while crypto skeptic Peter Schiff even allowed for the asset falling below $20,000.

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Source: Incrypted