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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is preparing to indicate that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, according to sources familiar with the central bank's discussions. This potential announcement is expected in the BOJ's October quarterly outlook and represents a significant shift for a central bank that has long struggled to achieve sustainable inflation. While a rate hike is not anticipated this month, the indication of reaching the inflation target reinforces market expectations for a possible increase in December.
Recent economic data, including steady wage gains and rising consumer and wholesale inflation, have contributed to this change in tone. The latest inflation figures from Tokyo and the BOJ's Tankan survey have bolstered confidence that inflation is nearing the target. However, there is no immediate urgency for further action, as the BOJ raised interest rates in September and many policymakers prefer to assess the impact of previous hikes before making additional moves.
Market sentiment reflects this cautious approach, with traders estimating an 86% likelihood that the BOJ will maintain current rates in October. Looking ahead, there is approximately a 64% chance of a rate hike by December. A formal acknowledgment of achieving the inflation target would support this outlook and align with the gradual tightening strategy the BOJ has pursued, having already raised rates in June and September. The focus is shifting towards the pace of future rate increases rather than the justification for further normalization.
Source: KLEA News