Bitcoin (BTC) Struggles Below $87,722 as ETF Inflows Plummet 90% in One Week

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s attempt to break through $90,000 has stalled just under $87,722, with spot ETF inflows collapsing from $2.39 billion to $241.1 million week-over-week.
• BTC dipped below $84,000 during Tuesday’s late session, touching $83,800 amid market-wide liquidations totaling $555.6 million.
• According to Bitfinex data, ETF holders have finally returned to their average cost basis of $84,320 following 233 days of unrealized losses.
• Market watchers identify critical support levels at $82,000-$82,500 and $84,000 that could determine near-term direction.
• U.S. Treasury yields remain at 19-year peaks, while September’s CPI report scheduled for Oct. 14 will precede the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

Bitcoin’s recent momentum toward the $90,000 mark has hit a wall. After reaching $87,197 on October 2, the cryptocurrency retreated below $87,722 and continued sliding toward the $84,000 threshold.

According to research from Bitfinex, the recent downturn coincides with a dramatic decline in institutional appetite, as weekly spot ETF capital inflows tumbled approximately 90%, dropping from $2.39 billion to just $241.1 million.

The research team projects Bitcoin will likely consolidate within the $84,000 to $87,722 range throughout the current trading week. While the bullish thesis remains intact, they emphasize that any upward continuation hinges on renewed spot market demand.

Spot ETF Holders Finally Surface at Breakeven

Drawing from Checkonchain metrics, Bitfinex calculates the weighted average entry price for spot ETF investors at $84,320. Bitcoin traded beneath this threshold for more than seven months before finally recapturing it on September 21.

Market researchers suggest that reaching breakeven may account for the deceleration in buying pressure. Historical patterns show that purchase activity typically accelerates after holders accumulate meaningful unrealized gains rather than simply returning to neutral.

The nine-day streak of consecutive inflows, which brought in $3.08 billion, came to an end on September 30 with a $148.7 million outflow. BlackRock’s IBIT fund dominated weekly inflows with $450.2 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC experienced $168 million in redemptions.

Market commentator Ted, known on social media as TedPillows, estimated only a 40% probability of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before year-end. He suggested the actual likelihood may be even lower given subdued spot demand and elevated leverage ratios, projecting that the six-figure milestone might not materialize until early 2027.

Bitfinex researchers also highlighted futures market dynamics. Open interest surged by $2.1 billion ahead of September’s employment data release, only to contract by $1.5 billion as prices tumbled following the report.

Half a Billion Dollars Wiped Out in Liquidation Cascade

Late Tuesday session saw Bitcoin momentarily pierce the $84,000 level, dropping to $83,800 before stabilizing around $84,071, representing a 1.7% decline over the 24-hour period.

Data from CoinGlass reveals that cryptocurrency liquidations surged to $555.6 million within a single day. Bullish long positions accounted for $487.2 million of these forced closures.

Dominick John, analyst at Zeus Research, attributed the retracement primarily to profit-taking activity combined with cascading long liquidations triggered by elevated open interest and funding rate accumulation.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades observed that Bitcoin’s bull market support band is rapidly ascending to track the recent price appreciation. He highlighted that Bitcoin frequently retests this technical band during later stages of bull cycles, though the retest often occurs at different price levels as the band itself moves higher.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered 62 on Tuesday, declining from 67 the previous session. While the reading still indicates greed, market sentiment has moderated somewhat.

ViaBTC’s chief analyst Jeff Ko noted that Bitcoin concluded the third quarter with approximately 40% gains, supported by $6.5 billion in spot ETF inflows. He emphasized that maintaining support between $82,000 and $83,000 would preserve the current consolidation as a healthy correction following September’s breakout rally.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, identified the primary downside liquidation cluster between $82,000 and $82,500. She warned that a breakdown through this zone could accelerate selling pressure toward $80,000.

Zhang’s optimistic scenario requires Bitcoin to defend $82,000 and recapture $87,500 as a launching pad for a potential move toward $95,000. Bitfinex identifies $84,000 as the critical price point where three-quarters of circulating supply remains profitable.

U.S. Treasury yields continue hovering at elevated levels, with five-year notes trading above 5% and ten-year bonds exceeding 5.2%—both representing 19-year highs.

September’s payroll expansion of 29,000 jobs reduced expectations for an October interest rate increase. However, core inflation holding at 3% maintains the possibility of a rate adjustment in December.

The upcoming September Consumer Price Index report, due October 14, will provide crucial data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 policy meeting.