Real Vision’s Raoul Pal: Weak Dollar Could Ignite Next Crypto Rally as AI Trade Cools

TLDR

• Real Vision’s Raoul Pal observes investment flows returning to cryptocurrency from artificial intelligence equities
• A declining US dollar could provide the catalyst for extended crypto market gains
• Autonomous AI agents may drive increased transaction volume on Ethereum and Solana networks
• Bitcoin likely won’t capture much of the AI-related blockchain activity
• Pal questions predictions that Solana will surpass Ethereum’s market capitalization this cycle

Raoul Pal, the founder of Real Vision, believes investment capital has begun migrating from artificial intelligence stocks back toward cryptocurrency assets. He shared these observations during an appearance on Trade Secrets with Cointelegraph.

According to Pal, elevated bond yields combined with US dollar strength have constrained liquidity flows across financial markets. He suggested that a softer dollar would serve as a catalyst enabling crypto assets to continue their upward trajectory.

“If they can engineer the dollar lower, then we get a green light for further movement in crypto,” Pal explained. He noted that comprehensive positive signals haven’t yet appeared across all asset classes.

The US Dollar Index has remained near its yearly peaks. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.29% in September, while the Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate increase.

Cryptocurrency Gains Have Coincided With AI Stock Corrections

Bitcoin’s rebound during this market cycle occurred primarily from August 19 through August 25, when the asset appreciated approximately 25% to reach $80,000. Throughout that identical timeframe, Nvidia, the prominent AI semiconductor manufacturer, experienced seven consecutive days of losses.

Pal indicated that temporary slowdowns in AI stock momentum have allowed investment capital to flow into digital assets. This pattern demonstrates that liquidity remains constrained rather than flowing freely throughout markets.

He emphasized that a severe decline in AI equities wouldn’t benefit cryptocurrency. Such a scenario would indicate broader liquidity withdrawal from the financial system, negatively impacting crypto market conditions as well.

Pal outlined his optimal scenario as dollar depreciation, a steepening yield curve, and expanded bank lending activity. Alternatively, he said his next-best outcome would involve AI stocks consolidating sideways while capital redirects toward cryptocurrency.

Autonomous AI Agents Could Drive Ethereum And Solana Adoption

Amazon Web Services launched functionality in June enabling AI agents to purchase web content using stablecoin payments. Coinbase facilitates payment verification through its x402 protocol, with USDC on the Base network among the supported payment methods.

Pal suggested that AI agents might eventually raise capital by creating tokens for initiatives spanning durations from one week to twelve months. He believes Ethereum and Solana stand to gain increased adoption as software applications leverage their smart contract infrastructure for transactions.

He noted that Bitcoin will probably be excluded from much of this emerging activity.

Pal expressed skepticism regarding predictions that Solana will exceed Ethereum’s market valuation. Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, stated last month that Solana would overtake Ethereum’s market cap during this cycle.

Pal said Samani “needs to hold his horses a little bit,” while acknowledging the scenario remains within the realm of possibility.

Solana registered approximately 3.2 million active addresses during a 24-hour period on Monday, while Ethereum recorded 387,000, based on DefiLlama data. Ethereum maintains roughly $54.4 billion locked in decentralized finance protocols, compared with Solana’s $6.7 billion.

Pal explained that he evaluates the two platforms using what he terms “economic density”—total value locked divided by active users. He characterized Solana’s activity as predominantly speculative behavior involving smaller capital amounts per participant.

Pal disclosed that he no longer shares public price predictions because his projections are frequently misrepresented when circulated online. He characterized the concept of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars by 2030 as a “meme,” though he wouldn’t dismiss the possibility by 2032.