Mokha retaken, but the Houthis are not done yet

Government forces in Yemen say they have recaptured the port of Mokha on the Red Sea. If they hold it, this would mark a striking turnaround, threatening to undermine Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandab.

Little more than a month ago, the northern rebels won a rapid series of victories on the Tihama coast, culminating in the fall of Mokha. With Iranian help, Houthi electronic warfare units succeeded by a ruse de guerre in infiltrating government forces’ communications. Impersonating southern commanders, they ordered their opponents to retreat. It worked.

That setback has now been reversed, but the Houthis are far from finished. They are investing the symbolically and strategically important city of Taiz, outside their Zaidi heartland. Like most of southern Yemen, Taiz is Shafii Sunni. The Houthis have besieged the city from the north, east and west for years. But lately, the fighting has become much more serious.

For the government the big prize is Hodeidah, the Houthi-controlled port from which many attacks on shipping have been launched, and perhaps Sanaa, the northern capital. But that seems a long way off.

Yemen is a tough place.

In Arabia and The Isles, published in 1942, Harold Ingrams recalled how blood feuds had so divided villages in Hadhramaut, eastern Yemen, that inhabitants had not ventured out of their front doors for decades. He was warned not to stray even a foot from a path through the fields, lest feuding farmers shoot him.

He went on to negotiate his eponymous Peace which saw the RAF bomb the villages of recalcitrant tribesmen. This was the 1930s and the tribesmen, according to Ingrams, mostly surrendered because they were not losing face – a lesson in the power of shame.

In Farewell to Arabia, another book worth reading today, David Holden recounts the demise of Imam Ahmad, the last-but-one Zaidi religious leader of northern Yemen, who died in his bed in 1962. Gamal Abdel Nasser, the Egyptian leader, was then in his pomp: after Suez and before 1967. Arab nationalism gripped the Middle East. Strangely but astutely for an absolute ruler, Imam Ahmad joined Nasser’s United Arab Republic.

The society Holden describes in Yemen is aristocratic – and by Yemen Holden means only the north. The Sayyids, those families which claimed descent from the Prophet, stood far above ordinary people. It is from their ranks that Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the current Houthi leader, is drawn.

In Baghdad Without A Map (published in 1991), Tony Horwitz recounts reaching Saada, the Houthi heartland, and on the way visiting the infamous weapons bazaars, of which there are several in the country. Assault rifles, hand grenades and bayonets were for sale.

A Saudi official once asked me, only half-jokingly, whether it was true that there are three Kalashnikovs in Yemen for each adult male. I was not sure at the time, but more assault rifles will have to be imported even to maintain a ratio of 1:1.

Indigenous populations in the Arabian Gulf are either stabilising, as in Saudi Arabia, or falling. Yemen’s population, however, is projected to rise from 43 million to 71 million by 2050, according to the World Health Organization. That means, say, 25 million AKs?

Further reading:

• Threat to Red Sea shipping increases as Houthis move south
• Shipowners could rethink Red Sea after deadly Houthi attack
• Houthi embargo threat creates perfect storm for shipping