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TD Securities Predicts Federal Reserve Rate Hikes in October and January
TD Securities has forecasted that the Federal Reserve will implement a total of three interest rate hikes in the current cycle, with the next two expected in October and January 2027. This prediction marks a shift from their earlier stance, which anticipated that the Fed would maintain steady rates for the remainder of 2026. The revision follows a stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report for August, which raised concerns about inflation not progressing sufficiently toward the Fed's target.
Strategists Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg indicated that while they do not expect explicit forward guidance from the Fed during its September meeting, they anticipate a hawkish tone in the accompanying dot plot. The first hike has already been executed, raising the federal funds rate range to 3.75% to 4.00%. However, the Fed's dot plot suggests only one additional hike for 2026, which puts TD's January forecast ahead of the central bank's median guidance.
TD's aggressive call places it among a select group of major banks that have revised their expectations following the CPI report. The market is now awaiting confirmation from TD regarding the timing of the anticipated October and January hikes, particularly in light of the Fed's recent signaling. Any updates from TD in the coming days will be closely monitored as they will indicate whether their forecast remains valid against the Fed's own projections.
Source: KLEA News