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The US dollar has surged to its highest level in over three months, driven by a significant increase in Treasury yields. The dollar index is approaching 102, bolstered by 10-year Treasury yields, which reached a peak of 5.34%, the highest since 2002, before settling at 5.29%. This rise in yields comes despite a recent softer US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report that had briefly tempered expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month.
The impact of rising yields is particularly evident in the foreign exchange market, where the EUR/USD currency pair has fallen below the 1.1300 mark, breaking through a crucial support level. Previously, the 1.1350 to 1.1400 range had provided significant resistance against sellers, but the breach of this area raises concerns about further declines, potentially targeting the June low of 1.1325. The 100-week moving average, currently around 1.1358, is also at risk of being surpassed, which could reinforce a bearish outlook for the euro against the dollar.
As the bond market continues to influence currency movements, analysts suggest that the dollar's strength is likely to persist as long as Treasury yields remain elevated. This trend presents challenges for EUR/USD buyers, who may struggle to regain momentum without a weekly close above the critical moving average. The next key levels to monitor for the euro include 1.1200, followed by the 200-week moving average near 1.1094 and the psychological threshold of 1.1000.
Source: KLEA News