Bitcoin Test of $82,500 and Oil’s Impact: Wintermute Issues a Forecast for Bitcoin

• Wintermute expects Bitcoin to retest the $82,500 level.
• Experts believe holding it is important to confirm the recent breakout.
• In the firm’s view, macro factors will increasingly shape the crypto market’s next moves, including oil prices and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Cryptocurrencies led gains among risk assets last week, despite a rate hike and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rising above 5%. Wintermute experts said.

Analysts noted that the leading cryptocurrency closed the week above its 50-week moving average for the first time since early November. At the same time, the morning pullback after the breakout is seen by the firm as the first test of the new range.

Analysts called $82,500 the key level. This mark capped Bitcoin’s previous range for several weeks.

Wintermute expects Bitcoin could test this level several times in a row. If the price holds above $82,500, last week’s close above the 50-week moving average could form a solid base for further upside. At the same time, a close below this mark would call the recent breakout into question.

Experts expect the leading cryptocurrency’s dominance to keep rising over the next few weeks if the market remains in a mode of setting fresh highs and extending the altcoin rally.

At the same time, market breadth remains high: more than 80% of tokens are posting positive performance. Wintermute observes that after reaching such levels, the market moved into a flat range or declined in the following weeks in more than 80% of cases. However, in the early stages of a cycle, this setup occurs more often, and the positive momentum can continue.

In the options market, the firm is also seeing rising demand for low-delta call options and call spreads on Bitcoin and Ethereum expiring at year-end. Wintermute noted that this points to bullish positioning, but they do not view talk of new all-time highs as a clear target.

Oil May Determine the Crypto Market’s Next Move

In Wintermute’s assessment, macroeconomics remains one of the main risks for the crypto market. The firm is paying particular attention to oil, as its price can influence expectations for the path of monetary policy.

Brent is trading near $103 per barrel, and only a portion of pre-war supply volumes is passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Wintermute believes that if oil stays around $100 or higher, the market will continue to price in the possibility of another rate hike in October.

Against this backdrop, the next question for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, will be how many further rate hikes they can withstand amid the bond market sell-off.

Wintermute also pointed to the agreements between the US and China following the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The trade truce was extended until January 10, 2027, and both sides agreed to ease tariffs by about $30 billion each. The firm noted that the market took these agreements in line with the “at least it didn’t get worse” principle.

According to Wintermute’s forecast, the crypto market may remain influenced in the near term by capital rotation between altcoin sectors. At the same time, for the cycle to continue, the firm expects bitcoin to move higher and new capital to flow in.

Until that happens, Wintermute sees mostly selective opportunities in altcoins. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors will increasingly shape the market’s trajectory toward the end of the quarter.

As a reminder, Santiment previously said that large players have accumulated nearly 114,000 BTC since July.

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