Inflation Intrigue and the Defense of $80,000: a Trader Assesses Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Scenarios

• Bitcoin held the zone above $80,000 after long positions were liquidated for roughly $1 billion.
• Ethereum remains weaker than bitcoin amid capital outflows from spot ETFs.
• DXY is trading within a global resistance block after rising to 102.535.
• CPI, PPI, retail sales, and Warsh’s speech will be the key triggers of the week.

Market Update — Defending $80,000, Ethereum Weakness, and the Inflation Intrigue

Last trading week clearly showed how smart money can keep the suspense alive. The expected deep correction stalled just one step away from the main targets, leaving the market in a state of structural uncertainty ahead of key macro data.

Let’s break down the current setup across the major assets, the state of the metrics, and actionable scenarios for the next few days.

Bitcoin — Long Squeeze Without Breaking Key Support

Bitcoin executed our priority scenario of a prolonged pullback almost to perfection. The chart reversed from last week’s high (PWH) at $86,976.1, but the dump stalled at $80,344.8.

The main price magnet — the round psychological $80,000 level and the structural low at $80,095.9 — remained untouched. The importance of this low is that it was the launchpad for the final impulse to all-time highs. As long as it is not broken, the imbalance below it is considered open.

During the decline, the market forcibly liquidated long positions for roughly $1 billion. Leverage tourists got flushed out, but we still did not see a true continuation of the downtrend.

Position Management

The main portion of the short, i.e., 75%, was taken at the local lows. The remainder of the position stays in the market with a tight stop moved to $85,560.

The final target remains the same — $79,500, the midpoint of the unfilled four-hour price imbalance (4H FVG) 78,400–80,500.

Structure and Metrics Analysis

The asset is trading around $83,552, pinned below the lower edge of the $83,600–$84,000 imbalance. A dense cluster of D/W/M/3M open levels has formed right near the current price.

The RSI on the 4H timeframe has cooled off, pulling back to a neutral 53. Open interest (OI) has edged down to 94,140 contracts.

The bounce from $80,344.8 reads purely as a technical retrace, not a sign of seller capitulation or a structural break.

Actionable BTC Scenarios

Scenario A — Liquidity Sweep and a New High

The chart is forming a tight consolidation in the $82,220–$83,000 block, ignoring further downside.

Next comes an impulsive breakout above the 4H FVG resistance at $83,600–$85,200 with acceptance, which opens the way to $87,385.1 and higher.

This is a setup where our stop gets tagged, while $80,095.9 remains untaken.

Scenario B — FVG Fill and a Dump to Targets

A technical push into the $84,500–$85,200 area to cover the imbalance. A strong seller reaction without candle acceptance, a return below $83,000, and an aggressive sweep of the liquidity pool below $80,095.9.

The chart moves into the target 4H FVG, with a move to $79,500.

Scenario C — Expanding Range

The market slips into a volatile “saw.” A drop to $81,500, a pump with a wick above the $87,385.1 high, then a deep pullback to test $80,000.

The decision on a range breakout is postponed, with liquidity steadily being collected on both sides.

Ethereum — Sweeping Lower Targets Amid ETF Outflows

Ethereum traded far more technically than bitcoin last week. Failing to print new highs and topping out at $2,737.61, the asset broke below the 4H FVG support at 2,690–2,726 and slid lower without a meaningful pullback.

Almost all of the targets we marked were hit: price swept last week’s low (PWL) at $2,634.00, the $2,600–$2,560 zone, $2,520, and the $2,450–$2,480 cascade, before stopping at $2,405.07.

Weakness Context

The main source of pressure on Ethereum is the relentless capital outflow from spot ETFs. While bitcoin is getting at least some support from institutional inflows, Ethereum is left one-on-one with sellers.

Position Management

The logic is identical to bitcoin. We took 75% profit on the short, and moved the stop to breakeven.

The remaining position is targeting the lower, untouched pools — last month’s low (PML) at $2,355.12 and the upper boundary of the Daily FVG around $2,200.

No attempts are being made to “catch the bottom” or buy an aggressive candle without structural confirmation.

Structure and Metrics Analysis

The instrument is priced at $2,552.84. Overhead sits a cascade of imbalances at $2,585–$2,690, while below there is a void all the way down to $2,355.

Open interest has stalled at 2.33 million. The local bounce is happening without new positioning, confirming a lack of genuine buyer interest.

Actionable Scenarios for ETH

Scenario A — Shallow Pullback and Trend Continuation

A test of the lower boundary of the 4H FVG without acceptance, rejection, and a move back below the weekly and daily opens.

Next — a break through $2,405.07 with a drop toward $2,355.12, followed by consolidation.

Scenario B — Break of the Bearish Structure

Liquidity sweep around $2,500, reversal, and an impulsive push through the 4H FVG ladder at $2,585–$2,690, with price holding above.

This setup breaks the current downtrend and is a signal to close the remaining short and consider long positions.

Scenario C — Chop Inside the Imbalance

Wide chop inside the FVG. Pullback to $2,460, spike to $2,650, and a retest of $2,690 without acceptance.

The range is left to the algorithms.

Macroeconomics and Trading Plan

This week is overloaded with macro triggers: fresh US inflation data is expected, and earnings season is kicking off.

The market already tried to price in the loud headline about Trump’s “diesel deal,” but the actual volumes there are tiny — about 15 hours of US consumption. The real driver for energy and broader markets is the upcoming inflation print.

It is worth noting that macro data and ETF outflows hit Ethereum much harder due to its high beta to the news flow.

Ahead of the inflation releases, no new positions are opened. The first 15–30 minutes after the data drops are strictly skipped — those algo candles are designed solely to liquidate early entries.

We are watching who capitulates first: our protective stop at $85,560 or the crowd whose liquidations are hidden below $80,000.

We work only with confirmed facts on the chart.

Dollar Index — Incursion Into the Global Resistance Block and an Inflation Twist

Last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) fully played out the hawkish scenario, leaving no chance for a local pullback.

Price pushed through 102.00 without a retrace and moved deep into the global 4H FVG resistance block, setting a new PWH high at 102.535.

DXY is now trading around 102.309, keeping enormous pressure on risk assets.

Structure and Key Levels

The bullish impulse drove the chart straight into a zone of historical supply.

On the upside, the main barrier is the fresh PWH extreme at 102.535. If buyers can push through this level, the next major area of interest sits in the void at 103.500–104.000.

On the downside, primary support is formed at 101.977. Deeper down is a critical structural cascade: PWL 101.754 and the previously broken prior-month high (PMH) at 101.612.

If these are lost, it opens up a free fall toward the 4H FVG around 101.200 and the daily imbalances, Day FVG 100.400–100.800.

Market Backdrop

The asset looks overheated after a vertical rally, but there are still no signs of buyer capitulation. The index is sitting inside a critical liquidity pool.

The current pause below the highs is accumulation ahead of the month’s main news block, which will decide the dollar’s medium-term fate.

For the crypto market, DXY holding these levels means a severe liquidity squeeze in the order books.

Three Actionable Scenarios for the Week

Scenario A — Rejection From Resistance and a Deep Correction

Price fails to absorb the heavy seller supply in the current block, loses support at 101.977, and drops below PWL 101.754.

A 4H candle close below triggers a cascading move down toward 101.200 and the daily imbalance at 100.600.

This is the base-case corrective path that would give bitcoin and altcoins the oxygen they need.

Scenario B — Impulsive Breakout and Rally Continuation

The dollar is accumulating volume above 102.000 and aggressively breaks through the 102.535 high.

A higher-timeframe close puts the index on a direct path toward 103.500–104.000.

This is the maximum-pressure scenario for risk assets.

Scenario C — Deviation and Structure Breakdown

A final news-driven spike above PWH 102.535, stop-hunting, and a hard rejection. A classic deviation forms with an aggressive return below 101.977, followed by a fast dump toward 101.400–101.200.

This is an ideal DXY bear trap, opening a window for full-scale crypto market longs.

Fundamental Triggers of the Week

A tough macro week lies ahead. All the price action will hinge on the US data slate.

• Wednesday, October 14, 3:30 pm — release of the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) and the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). The key inflation gauge that will set the trend
• Thursday, October 15, 3:30 pm — retail sales data, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and initial jobless claims
• Friday, October 16, 6:30 am — speech by Fed Governor Warsh

Trading Plan

Buying the dollar outright and shorting the crypto market right under a major global resistance block is mathematically unfavorable.

The resolution will come on Wednesday–Thursday with the inflation releases. The key marker for us is holding the 101,977–101,754 zone.

If the dollar loses these levels on a 4H close, the priority shifts toward scenario A. Until CPI is out, we keep risk to a minimum and don’t front-run the move.

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