Next Week's Macro Outlook: September Minutes May Reveal Fed's Internal Rate-Hike Divisions, Earnings Enter a Rare Quiet Period

PANews reported on October 4, citing Jinshi, that in a week of trading marked by an unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls report and a renewed rise in long-end U.S. Treasury yields, the Fed's rate-hike path, Middle East and energy policy, and dollar liquidity became the three main threads driving global assets. Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time):

• Monday 17:00, Eurozone August PPI month-over-month;
• Monday 22:00, U.S. September ISM non-manufacturing PMI;
• Tuesday 22:45, Fed Governor Bowman speaks;
• Wednesday TBD, U.S. 20-30 year Treasury buyback operation size;
• Thursday 02:00, Fed releases September monetary policy meeting minutes;
• Thursday 03:00, U.S. August consumer credit;
• Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3.

The U.S. stock market's third-quarter earnings season has not yet officially begun; bank stocks typically do not kick things off until mid-October, so next week is a rare earnings quiet period. Ahead of the traditionally strong fourth-quarter period for U.S. stocks, long-end yields, the midterm elections, and earnings will be three important variables.