William Blair Maintains Positive Outlook for Coinbase and Circle Amid Revenue Forecast Cuts

William Blair has reaffirmed its Outperform ratings for Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL), despite significantly reducing revenue forecasts for both companies. In a research note dated July 15, the firm cut its 2026 revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% and by 13% for 2027, while also slashing adjusted EBITDA projections by 34% for the same periods. The primary reason for these adjustments is a sharp decline in spot trading volumes, which are crucial for Coinbase's revenue generation.

The firm anticipates that total trading volume on Coinbase's platform will decrease by approximately 44% in 2026, amounting to $669 billion, before experiencing a recovery of over 32% in 2027. Currently, Coinbase shares are trading about 60% lower than their peak in July 2025 and 26% below their highs from March 2026. Analysts at William Blair believe that this pullback has already factored in the weak trading activity.

Despite the downward revisions, analysts see a favorable risk/reward scenario for both stocks. They expect Coinbase's EBITDA to reach its lowest point in the latter half of 2026, followed by a rebound in 2027. This recovery is projected to be supported not only by a resurgence in retail trading volume but also by new revenue streams such as derivatives trading and prediction markets. Additionally, Circle's USDC stablecoin has been gaining traction, with its market share rising to approximately 27% as of April 2026, up from about 21% in 2024. William Blair views the relationship between Coinbase and Circle regarding USDC reserves as a significant positive for both companies.

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Source: KLEA News