Wintermute Calls RWAs a Potential Driver of the Crypto Market’s Next Bull Cycle

Published: September 3, 2026 – 11:48 UTC

Over the past two weeks, capital inflows via the main liquidity channels have resumed, including ETFs and stablecoins.
Wintermute believes that a new, full-fledged crypto bull cycle will require a new channel for attracting capital.
In the firm’s view, RWAs could become that channel.

Wintermute analysts said that two weeks of positive momentum may have brought the crypto market’s sideways phase to an end. According to them, traditional liquidity channels are once again seeing inflows, ETFs are posting positive dynamics, and stablecoin issuance has stabilized.

This raised the question of a possible start to a new bull rally. At the same time, Wintermute noted that a full cycle may require a new channel capable of pulling accumulated capital into the crypto market.

The firm recalled that previous bull cycles were accompanied by the emergence and scaling of new liquidity channels:

in 2017–2018, that channel was venture capital and ICOs.
in 2020–2021 — stablecoins, whose net issuance over the year exceeded $120 billion.
in 2024–2025 — spot ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), which delivered $63 billion in net inflows to ETFs and more than $115 billion in accumulated digital treasury assets.

In Wintermute’s view, ETFs and DAT have already become a familiar part of the crypto market, so investors need a new mechanism for capital inflows. The firm names RWAs as such a candidate.

Tokenized Asset Volume Triples

According to Wintermute, over the past year the onchain volume of tokenized assets has grown by roughly threefold — to more than $30 billion. The sector continued to expand even during periods when the stablecoin base was shrinking.

Analysts believe tokenization is gradually evolving from a mechanism for bringing traditional assets onto the blockchain into a standalone liquidity channel. Tokenized stocks, funds, and crypto assets are increasingly held in the same wallets and settled using the same stablecoins.

This lowers the barriers between traditional assets and the crypto market. Capital that initially flows into tokenized stocks or funds, once onchain, can potentially move more easily into bitcoin, altcoins, and other assets, the experts explained.

This is exactly how RWAs differ from ETFs or DAT. The previous channels directly created demand for specific crypto assets, whereas tokenization first places capital inside the onchain ecosystem, after which it can be reallocated across different assets.

RWAs Are Still Much Smaller Than Previous Channels

At the same time, Wintermute emphasizes that RWAs are still at an early stage of development. Over the past 12 months, the sector has attracted around $16 billion — roughly one-tenth of the volumes that ETFs and DAT posted in their best 12 months of the previous cycle.

According to the firm’s estimates, the current RWA growth cycle has been running for about 18 months. By comparison, previous channels reached peak inflows 20–60 months after achieving meaningful scale: ETFs — at around 20 months, stablecoins — at 33 months, and VC and ICOs — at 54 months.

Adjusted RWA inflows over the past 12 months amount to around 0.9% of the total crypto market capitalization. Wintermute noted that this is higher than DAT at a comparable stage and only slightly below ETFs.

At present, most tokenized assets are represented by cash management products, Treasuries, and money market funds. A significant share of these products operates in closed, permissioned systems. Wintermute highlights two factors that could change the situation:

the first — regulatory. New rules on market structure and tokenization could expand the range of participants allowed to hold tokenized securities and transfer them
the second — technical. Tokenized Treasuries and funds are increasingly being used as collateral on centralized venues and in DeFi. This could turn these assets from capital preservation instruments into working balance sheet collateral that interacts with other parts of the crypto ecosystem.

RWAs Could Reshape the Structure of the Next Cycle

Wintermute explains that the last bull market mostly lifted only bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few large altcoins. Because institutional money entered primarily via ETFs and corporate crypto treasury holdings (DAT), capital simply “didn’t reach” most other altcoins.

With RWAs, the situation could be different. If tokenized balance sheets start moving beyond closed products and are used as collateral in DeFi, capital could potentially flow more freely between traditional assets and crypto assets.

At the same time, the firm expects this process to be slower than the inflows seen after the launch of ETFs. Tokenized assets are mostly held on the balance sheets of institutional investors rather than retail traders, so an RWA-driven cycle could prove longer and less sharp.

Wintermute stressed that the recovery of inflows via ETFs, stablecoins, and other existing channels over the past two weeks could support the market. However, to form a new full-fledged bull cycle, analysts believe scaling a new source of liquidity may be required.

The company will monitor whether tokenized assets begin to move beyond cash management products, are used more often as collateral, and enter DeFi. Wintermute sees these processes as key signals that RWAs are truly becoming a new liquidity channel for the crypto market.

As a reminder, earlier Standard Chartered said that the DeFi crisis will not stop the sector’s growth and the RWA market’s expansion to $2 trillion.

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Source: Incrypted