Crypto Market Bottom in November? Fidelity Says the Bear Cycle May Be Nearing Its End

• Fidelity pointed to a potential bitcoin bottom forming by the end of 2026.
• Based on the four-year cycle model, the next bottom could fall in November.
• Fundamental crypto adoption metrics continue to rise despite weak price action, experts said.

Bitcoin may be nearing the end of the current bear market. Several factors point to this, including the historical behavior of four-year cycles, shifting volatility, and sustained underlying demand for digital assets. This is outlined in an analytical report by Fidelity.

A bottom in November?

Fidelity analysts drew attention to Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. For most of the asset’s history, local bear-market bottoms and bull-phase peaks have formed at roughly this interval.

The previous bitcoin bottom came in November 2022. If the historical pattern continues to hold, the next bottom could form around November 2026, the statement said.

At the same time, Fidelity emphasizes that cycles do not last exactly four years and cannot be used to pinpoint a precise market entry. According to the firm, the bottom may have already formed in July, or, conversely, bitcoin could fall again and set a new low in November or later.

“More important for investors is that digital asset adoption happens in waves, which can be what creates cycles,” said Chris Kuiper, Fidelity’s vice president of research.

He added that a long-term outlook and holding assets over time have historically been more beneficial for investors than trying to time the market precisely.

Volatility sends a signal

Another factor Fidelity cites is volatility dynamics. According to Kuiper, from June through mid-August, digital assets were in a period of relatively low volatility. At the same time, Fidelity’s analysis showed that bitcoin was trading near the lower bound of, or within, its “fair value” zone compared with historical data.

By late August, the situation changed. Bitcoin moved into a high-volatility phase and gained more than 25% in the third week of the month. Over the same period, Ethereum rose 34.1%, and Solana — 28%.

Fidelity notes that previous bitcoin bear markets also ended after a period of low volatility, followed by a sharp move higher in price. At the same time, this factor on its own does not confirm that the bear market is over.

“Recent events that would likely have acted as bear market catalysts — such as a hardware wallet security incident or the stalling of the CLARITY Act bill — did not lead to price declines,” Kuiper said.

In his view, this could be an additional sign that the crypto market is near a bottom and is looking for the next positive catalyst.

Crypto adoption continues to grow

Another argument in favor of a potential reversal, Fidelity says, is the crypto industry’s fundamentals. Despite weak price action for much of the third quarter, the use of digital assets continued to grow.

In particular, in July, stablecoin transaction volume exceeded Visa’s figure by 2.3 times. Also in July, MetaMask reported accelerating growth in the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market in 2026.

As a result, over the past few months, crypto asset prices and adoption metrics have been moving in different directions. Fidelity believes that the August rally may indicate a gradual restoration of the link between fundamentals and prices.

According to Kuiper, digital asset adoption metrics should be viewed as the network’s fundamental base. The resilience and growth of these metrics over the past few months suggest that the real value of crypto networks remains unchanged, even if market prices temporarily failed to keep up.

At the same time, Fidelity cautions that such positive signals do not guarantee a definitive end to the bearish trend. Investors are advised to continue monitoring volatility levels, the pace of digital asset adoption, and bitcoin’s ability to hold its regained positions.

As a reminder, earlier CryptoQuant analysts said that the idea of catching the absolute bottom is misguided.

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