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China's Economic Growth Slips Below Target, Stimulus Expectations Rise
China's economic growth has slowed to approximately 4% year-on-year in early Q3, down from 4.3% in the previous quarter, according to Goldman Sachs. This deceleration is attributed to a decline in industrial output, consumption, and investment, driven by softening demand rather than supply constraints. The latest figures have raised concerns among economists about the country's ability to meet its annual growth target of 4.5% to 5%.
Macquarie Group and BNP Paribas have also reported similar findings, estimating July's monthly GDP growth at 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively. If growth remains at or below 4% through August and September, BNP Paribas anticipates that the Chinese government will likely introduce fresh stimulus measures by late September or early October. Premier Li Qiang has urged the government to enhance supportive measures, including potential loan subsidies for businesses and consumers.
Despite increasing pressure for more aggressive monetary easing, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain its policy rate through 2026 and 2027, with a reserve requirement ratio cut seen as a more probable action in the fourth quarter. State media has defended China's economic performance, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation over mere growth rates, although analysts caution that this focus may not significantly boost consumption or income levels.
Source: KLEA News