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Gulf Oil Exports Normalize, But Dated Brent Prices Remain Elevated
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to approximately 22 to 23 million barrels per day, aligning with Goldman Sachs' estimates for 2025 averages. This recovery has been primarily driven by crude oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia, which has seen its shipments more than double to nearly 12 million barrels per day in September. However, refined product exports, including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, remain significantly lower, at about half of normal levels due to regional refinery outages and risks associated with transporting flammable cargo.
Despite the recovery in export volumes, physical prices for crude oil, specifically Dated Brent, have remained high, recently nearing $120 per barrel. This price disparity is attributed to concerns over potential escalations in geopolitical tensions that could impact long-term production, as well as historically low global stock levels outside of OECD commercial inventories. Goldman Sachs noted that the risk premium in Brent spreads averaged $22 per barrel in September, marking one of the highest levels recorded.
The situation is further complicated by recent claims from the Houthi movement regarding strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities, which could threaten the stability of the oil supply that has been instrumental in the recovery. Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast that Brent prices will ease to $85 by the end of the year and $80 by 2027, although they caution that renewed geopolitical tensions could lead to a sharp increase in prices.
Source: KLEA News