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Morgan Stanley has upgraded Brazil's investment rating to overweight, citing a significant market rally and potential for further growth. The upgrade follows a strong performance on Monday, where the MSCI Brazil index surged 12.5% in U.S. dollar terms, while the broader MSCI Emerging Markets index rose by 1.6%. The firm anticipates an additional 10% increase in both Brazilian equities and the Brazilian real by the end of the year, as risk premiums are expected to compress.
The upgrade is seen as the beginning of a favorable period for Brazilian markets under President Flavio Bolsonaro. Morgan Stanley's analysis highlights that Brazilian investors have been largely absent from the stock market due to historically high real interest rates, with local equity allocations hovering around 5%, just above an all-time low. The firm suggests that if fiscal consolidation occurs, it could lead to a significant shift from debt investments to equities, potentially unlocking up to $100 billion in new demand for Brazil's $500 billion free float.
Additionally, the firm notes that Brazil's recent political shift away from left-wing populism, following similar trends in Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Colombia, could lower the region's cost of capital and strengthen ties with the United States. However, Morgan Stanley cautions that the upcoming second round of voting remains uncertain, and emphasizes the necessity of fiscal discipline for sustained market confidence.
Source: KLEA News