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People's Bank of China Expected to Set USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.6947
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is anticipated to establish the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.6947, a key indicator closely monitored in Asian foreign exchange markets. This fixing mechanism has gained significance recently as the PBOC shifts its approach from restraining the yuan's rise to allowing for a gradual appreciation. Over the past month, the midpoint has strengthened, suggesting a change in the central bank's stance towards the currency's value.
For nearly a year, the PBOC had set its daily guidance weaker than market expectations, which traders interpreted as an effort to slow the yuan's appreciation. However, in September, the PBOC strengthened the fixing for eight consecutive sessions, marking the longest streak since 2023. This adjustment has brought the midpoint to its strongest level since February 2023, with the onshore yuan trading at its highest since January 2023 and the offshore rate reaching levels not seen since July 2022.
China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, allowing the yuan to trade within a band of plus or minus 2% around the daily midpoint. The PBOC retains discretion over the final fixing, which reflects various factors including previous closing prices, movements in major currencies, and domestic economic conditions. The gap between the fixing and market estimates serves as a crucial indicator of the central bank's willingness to let the yuan appreciate further, balancing the need for capital stability against the potential impact on export competitiveness amid a softening domestic economy.
Source: KLEA News