Tesla (TSLA) Shares Slide as Q3 Delivery Expectations Drop and Roadster Event Postponed

Key Highlights

• Tesla shares declined roughly 1% on Tuesday, hovering around the $354 mark
• Analysts anticipate approximately 463,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, representing a 7% year-over-year decline
• JPMorgan reduced its quarterly forecast to 482,000 vehicles, citing softness across US and Chinese markets
• Chinese wholesale figures increased 19% annually, though domestic retail dropped 21%
• The automaker postponed its Roadster unveiling by two weeks to October 15, blaming weather forecasts

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell approximately 1% during Tuesday’s trading session, settling around the $354 level. The decline unfolds as market participants await the electric vehicle manufacturer’s quarterly delivery figures, anticipated to arrive later this week.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Current Wall Street consensus points to approximately 463,000 vehicle deliveries during the third quarter. This projection represents a 7% contraction from the prior year’s 497,000 units.

The previous year’s third quarter benefited from the availability of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax incentive, which remained in effect during that period. With this credit now eliminated, year-over-year comparisons face additional headwinds.

Despite these challenges, Tesla has managed to capture additional ground. The automaker has expanded its presence within the domestic electric vehicle landscape throughout the current year.

Sales across European territories have demonstrated improvement as well. The Shanghai Gigafactory has ramped up vehicle exports to international destinations, partially compensating for domestic shortfalls.

Geographic Performance Breakdown

In a research note distributed to investors this week, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta provided a detailed regional analysis. European Union registration data indicated a roughly 9% year-over-year contraction overall.

Markets including France and Germany posted solid results, whereas the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain experienced weakness. The European picture remains inconsistent across different territories.

Chinese market dynamics painted a contrasting narrative. Combined wholesale figures for July and August, encompassing export volumes, climbed 19% on an annual basis.

Export shipments from Chinese facilities surged 92% year-over-year throughout this timeframe. Meanwhile, domestic Chinese retail transactions declined by an estimated 21% during the identical period.

JPMorgan revised its quarterly delivery projection downward to 482,000 vehicles. The investment firm attributed the adjustment to underwhelming performance across both American and Chinese territories.

Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving technology represents a bright spot. The manufacturer reported FSD subscription numbers reached 1.48 million by the conclusion of the second quarter, reflecting 56% growth year-over-year.

The majority of these subscribers presumably reside within the United States. Favorable reception of the autonomous driving software may have bolstered domestic sales throughout the quarter.

Roadster Launch Event Rescheduled

Tesla’s quarterly delivery announcement is anticipated on Friday. This update arrives immediately following the company’s decision to postpone its highly anticipated Roadster presentation.

The unveiling was initially planned for Thursday, October 1. On Monday, Tesla revealed plans to move the showcase to October 15 instead.

“We’ve been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted and because this event can only be held outdoors, we’ve made the difficult decision to reschedule,” the company stated in its X platform announcement.

The postponement surprised many observers. Speculation has emerged questioning whether Tesla required additional preparation time for the vehicle.

Previous reporting from The Information suggested the presentation might showcase a specialized Roadster edition equipped with cold-gas propulsion systems developed alongside SpaceX. This particular configuration allegedly possesses hovering capabilities or limited flight functionality.

An outdoor setting would be appropriate for such a showcase. Tesla’s official explanation regarding weather considerations aligns with these earlier reports.

Tesla initially introduced the next-generation Roadster concept in 2017. Early reservation holders submitted deposits with expectations of delivery commencing in 2020.

These initial customers have endured significant delays beyond original projections. The revised October 15 timeline extends their wait by an additional two weeks.