Analyst: Selling pressure in BTC decline mainly from short-term holders

PANews reported on October 16 that analyst Murphy pointed out that in the recent BTC pullback, the behavioral differences between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH) are significant. Data shows that short-term holders transferred an average of about 2,200 BTC per hour to exchanges within a 4-hour window, forming a long spike clearly higher than other periods. This peak is the 4th highest since the market rally began in August this year, with two occurrences on October 8 and 15 both appearing during declines. The transfer scale on the 15th was already lower than on the 8th, indicating that the selling pressure from "swing chips" has weakened somewhat.

In contrast, long-term holders transferred an average of only about 480 BTC per hour to exchanges during the same 4-hour window, indicating that they are not sensitive to the current decline and expectations of macro headwinds. On October 8, long-term holders once saw a peak of 3,700 BTC/hour in large-scale transfers (possibly partly related to a hardware wallet incident), but overall, the main force transferring to exchanges during the decline is still short-term holders. Murphy believes that the current BTC participant structure is solid, and genuine bottom chips are unlikely to leave at this point.