Bitcoin’s Road to $125K Could Include a Brutal Drop to $68K: Analyst

Although bitcoin rebounded from the dip below $80,000 and now sits two grand higher, the risk of another deep correction has not been completely eliminated.

Analysts are watching the $84,000 resistance as the immediate recovery level, while one longer-term scenario envisions the cryptocurrency plummeting to $68,000 first before going after its 2025 all-time high.

$68K First, Rally Later?

Daan Crypto Trade argued that BTC managed to sweep liquidity while still saving its daily close. He described the recent move as a good example of why waiting for candle closes actually matters. However, he warned that the recovery now needs to continue, which it hasn’t.

The analyst said BTC must reclaim at least $84,000 in the coming trading days, as remaining and consolidating below it could leave the asset vulnerable to another gradual move south. A successful recovery above $84,000, though, would instead put the untapped highs around $87,000-$88,000 back in focus.

This aligns with BTC’s recent price moves, as the asset has repeatedly struggled around the $84,000 area after tumbling toward $80,000. Weakening buyer pressure has intensified uncertainty around the recovery attempt, and the macro landscape dealt another blow earlier this week with a higher-than-expected September CPI reading.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst EGRAG CRYPTO noted that investors should not necessarily interpret another substantial correction as the end of the bull market. Using a 2023 fractal, he added that BTC previously experienced a 22% pullback before its next major expansion wave. Applying similar math to the current numbers would mean a drop to $68,000.

EGRAG identified $84,800 as the 0.5 Fibonacci “battlefield” and $68,000 as a possible shakeout zone before a potential move toward $114,000-$125,000, provided the broader structure remains intact.

Buying Opportunity?

CryptoGoos offered a different way of assessing the current market structure through BTC’s supply in profit. His strategy is to accumulate when the percentage falls toward what he considers a historically important support line, before gradually taking profits once the metric exceeds 80%.

The analyst expects multiple local tops during the current cycle rather than one clean vertical move. Other recent BTC indicators have also painted a mixed picture. For instance, bitcoin has remained above its 50-week moving average for several consecutive weeks, which some analysts view as evidence that the broader recovery is intact.

However, it has repeatedly failed to break through the $86,000-$89,000 resistance region, while more than $1 billion in profits were recently realized after it last climbed above $87,000.