Breakout to $87,000 or Drop to $70,000: Wintermute Outlined Key Scenarios for Bitcoin

• Wintermute expects volatility to pick up ahead of the Fed meeting on October 28.
• A breakout above $87,000 could pave the way for further gains, while losing $82,500 support could send bitcoin down toward the $70,000 area.

The crypto market is showing signs of capital rotation in favor of bitcoin and Ethereum. Wintermute market maker analysts said so. They noted that altcoins fell 5.69% over the past week, while bitcoin slipped 1.99% and held near $82,500.

According to Wintermute, the $82,500 level, which previously acted as resistance, has now turned into support after bitcoin traded near it for more than three weeks. Last week, the price briefly dipped below this level, but later recovered.

The market maker outlines two key scenarios for bitcoin’s next move. A break above $87,000 could confirm bullish momentum. Conversely, a sustained loss of $82,500 support could open the way to a lower range near $70,000.

Wintermute does not attempt to predict the direction of the move, but considers the current price range unstable due to several major events approaching. These include the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28, the US midterm elections on November 3, and the release of third-quarter corporate earnings.

The macro backdrop remains one of the risks for the crypto market. Headline inflation in the US rose to 3.7%, and core inflation came in above expectations. Wintermute estimates that if the US Federal Reserve takes a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, Treasury yields could rise, increasing pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin.

At the same time, the market maker notes that the leading cryptocurrency has recently outperformed the Nasdaq index by 3.5 percentage points, showing relative resilience amid weakness in tech stocks.

Altcoins Lag Behind Major Crypto Assets

According to Wintermute, altcoins have been declining for about two weeks after a local peak. The steepest drops are seen among assets with high sensitivity to market swings and low-cap tokens.

The market maker also observes capital flowing out of altcoins into bitcoin and Ethereum. At the same time, some large altcoins with stronger fundamentals are attracting long-term investors, who are using improved liquidity to build positions.

Another signal is the rising correlation among crypto assets. During the rally in August and September, most tokens moved in the same direction, after which the market shifted into a period where individual assets’ performance depended more on their own news. Now, against the backdrop of the market downturn, correlation is strengthening again, the statement said.

Wintermute believes that under current conditions, the risk-reward profile looks more attractive in bitcoin and Ethereum than in altcoins. If bitcoin spikes higher, altcoins may remain range-bound, and in the event of a broader sell-off, they could face additional pressure.

The market maker expects the next key catalyst to be the FOMC meeting on October 28. A hawkish Fed stance could increase pressure on the crypto market, while more restrained rhetoric and strong corporate earnings could support a scenario in which bitcoin rises above $87,000.

As a reminder, earlier experts said that bitcoin is forming a bottom amid whale accumulation, but spot demand remains weak.

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